Evolve Lab

Evolve Lab

SinK 23 Mar, 2021 @ 11:31am
Emerging difficulty curve: anticipating potential pitfalls
Hi, I recently saw this pop up in my recommendations on Steam; while I appreciate the concept of the game, I worry the way creatures are assigned a definitive depth level may have odd, even unwelcome, outcomes on the difficulty curve. Consequently, I am curious about how you intend to prevent the worst of the possible effects described below from happening (as game development may still be in a stage early enough that potential problems can be avoided before they are even encountered).

If I understand the pitch correctly, a creature is “fixed” at a given depth level as a potential opponent either if it was the first to reach this depth, or if it loses there. In other words, the opponent a player will encounter at a given depth is selected among a pool composed of the first creature to reach this depth, those it defeated, the creatures defeated by the creatures defeated by the pioneer creatures, and so on and so forth. The stated objective is that difficulty increases with depth, with no developer interventions necessary.
If we ignore for now the way strategies interact with each others, and model creatures as more or less “dangerous” in the absolute (a pretty big “if”, but hear me out), the consequences of this selection method on difficulty are twofold.
First, the initial difficulty of a given depth level is determined by the pioneer; the implication is that if the pioneer is especially good, it create a spike in difficulty for the following players: there will be an increase in difficulty with depth, but there is no obvious guarantee that this increase will necessarily be gradual. Worst case scenario: a mad genius plays at initial launch and block the second depth level with a virtually invincible juggernaut. While there is statistically little chance of something so drastic happening, given the growing number of depth levels, it seems unpredictable difficulty spikes are unavoidable in the proposed set-up.
Secondly, on the other hand, the first creature to reach a given depth is the more dangerous possible opponent there: the next additions to the pool lost to it, or to something that lost to it, etc. As a result, every addition to the opponent pool is weaker than the last; if opponent selection among this pool is random, the average difficulty of a given depth level gets lower and lower, only bound by the difficult of the depth below it... which is also decreasing. Thus, there may be a “difficulty decay”, as depth levels get swollen with weaker and weaker potential opponents; this is admittedly better than the alternative, a “difficulty creep”, that could easily result from an other way to assign depth levels to creatures. Perhaps giving a defeated creature 50% chance of getting stuck at one level and 50% chance of ending up one level deeper might do the trick, but that's a simplistic hunch that sounds too good to be true...

All that being said, the difficulty an opponent presents isn't actually absolute, but depends largely on which general strategy beat another; while this allays some of my difficulty-related worries mentioned above, it also opens up another can of worms, as the repartition of creatures along depth level will thus be influenced by the metagame. Theoretically, the final version of the game may have an optimal strategy, offering the best win/loss ratio, toward which most experienced players converge and which fills all depth levels after a certain points. If I remember correctly, this situation happened in the history of the famous collectible card game Magic: the Gathering, despite the experience of its developers; whatever you think a healthy metagame looks like, you may not stumble upon it at the first try.
A useful tool to deal with unbalance is simply to patch the game, to make some weak strategies better or the strong ones less dominant. However, as a consequence, at a given depth level the impacted creatures will get weaker or stronger, and thus their power level may become inadequate to the depth level they were assigned to pre-patch.

My tentative conclusion is that it may be necessary for NPC creatures to adjust their depth level based on how well they fare against players on average, “migrating” upward or downward (if the depth level has been founded by a player) in search of a 50% win/loss ratio -adapting to balance changes and smoothing difficulty spikes. More drastically, NPCs may instead (or also) disappear, either after a certain time elapsed or if unbeaten or uncontested for too long, so that if they are indeed unbalanced, at least they won't be for too long, leaving opportunities for players to fill back the niches anew; not very elegant and somewhat frustrating, but the occasional culling of creatures would have the advantage of diminishing the amount of data you'd have to store, if that's a factor worthy of consideration.
That being said I've only thought about your game for a very short time based on what I could read about it on Steam, so I clearly don't really know what I'm talking about; I would like to read more about the mechanics put in place to ensure a relative regularity of the increase in difficulty with depth.
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joey12313 28 Sep, 2021 @ 8:52pm 
i see
Spinzaku  [developer] 6 Jun, 2022 @ 2:44pm 
Hello SinK and sorry for answering you so late. I didn't have this community tab on my radar yet, as most of our discussions currently happen in the community discord.

The game has actually already been running in a closed alpha for close to two years now and therefore I could already gather a lot of data and test different methods to address some of your concerns.

In the early versions of the game, the player only had one creature and always encountered a random creature at each depth. During this time it was often hard for players to reach further than a certain threshold, as the game developed some sort of a rock paper scissors dynamic and how far one creature could go was mainly determined by how long it took until it encountered a counter.

To deal with this problem, I have implemented two new features. The first one being, that the player starts with a team of three creatures and can always choose which one of these he wants to send against the enemy.
The second feature is a map, similar to the ones in games like slay the spire, in which the player can choose between different difficulties of creatures and gets better rewards if he chooses harder encounters.

I have seen great results after implementing these changes and skilled players could consistently reach new depths, even when the deepest creature was already at a depth of 20 or more.

Another aspect is, that we periodically reset the whole game and readjust the game balance if one strategy is too dominating and to keep the meta fresh.

I have also tested your mentioned approach of creatures moving between depths after being stored, if they have an unusual high or low win rate. Since the power spike between depths is rather big, this has resulted in these creatures dominating, if they were moved to a lower depth or losing almost every fight in the other case.

I am of course always closely monitoring all the feedback and statistics to prevent a state, in which the game is too easy or hard for the regular player.
Last edited by Spinzaku; 6 Jun, 2022 @ 2:49pm
TheNonsense 7 Jun, 2022 @ 2:12am 
I'll just add to & repeat a few things Spinzaku already said (I'm not a dev, but I'm the most active alpha tester):

Firstly, very cool that you thought about these things, they've all come up in the earlier stages of testing, meaning you were right on the money. However, they've all been solved, as far as I can see it.

As Spinzaku (the dev) already mentioned, we did experiment with creatures adjusting their depth, mainly to solve the problem of an extremely weak creature being alone on a single depth, but also to correct for outliers. While this did fix some issues, it created a lot of feel bad moments. Downgraded creatures were especially unfun to face, as a weak creature on depth 10 could be an extremely strong creature on depth 9.

Luckily, with the additions of new mechanics and systems, the problems you mention have more or less solved themselves.

Why strong pioneers are not an issue:
There are multiple systems in place that shift the odds into the challengers favor. Above all, he has more information and agency: He can view the pioneer in the ladder and plan accordingly. The action pool is rich enough, such that any strategy has clear counters and if an unbeatable strategy emerges it will either be nerfed, or a new way to specifically counter it will be introduced. If you make it to the depth with all of your team (you get 3 creatures per run), you get 3 attempts at beating the pioneer, shifting the odds further in your favor.
Then there's also the fact that you can choose your opponents to an extent, as Spinzaku already described. You get rewarded for facing strong creatures, but you can also try and avoid them.
Further, the second problem you mention is actually a solution to the first one. Any creature that loses to the strong pioneer, will also populate the same depth and present an easier opponent to beat.
Subjectively, I've never ran into a situation were I felt I could not possibly beat the currently deepest creature (except for in early stages of development, when the action pool was much more constrained), which brings us to your second concern.

Why difficulty decay is not an issue:
As I see it, difficulty decay is actually a good thing. If reaching new depths becomes exponentially harder, the ladder becomes stale. Experience has also shown that this effect is not too strong. It does become harder the deeper you go, because your team needs to be able to face a wide variety of creatures. All in all, in the last few patches this balance has been in a very good state.

As an aside: Trying to reach the deepest depth is only one of many goals. Having your creature be the strongest on a given depth is also cool. Just like in magic, different kinds of players exist. Some enjoy creating very weird, unique creatures (not necessarily the strongest creatures). Or the deepest creature that uses a specific skill. Maybe you want to purposely put a lot of a certain type of creature into the ladder, because you think it's funny, or even use a team of two strong creatures and one "funny" one, to place the funny one way deeper than it should be and give others a nice surprise when they see it, etc. This also automatically leads to a diverse meta.
SinK 8 Jun, 2022 @ 5:38am 
Well, better late than never! I am glad you two took the time to answer me, and that you managed to smooth the aforementionned issues into irrelevance through increased player agency in picking their battles, among other things. Hope the development in general goes well!
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Date Posted: 23 Mar, 2021 @ 11:31am
Posts: 4