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Try this for me.
Rifle No Rank against Grenadier Grenade
Rifle Max Rank against Grenadier Grenade
The only difference I see most of the time is that you have to keep the enemy occupied looking at something else so you can sneak a grenade throw on the high level ranks.
So comparing mainline infantry directly is a somewhat useful, but also doesn't tell the full story. One of the main strengths of USF rifle play, is that it synergises very well with the grenade package. This does not just unlock frag grenades, but also smoke on rear echelons and the officiers. This can allow riflemen to close in without taking damage and the frags are useful to threaten team weapons and infantry bunched up in cover. Early weapon racks is less useful, because both the tech and the individual weapons are rather expensive, since you can put two BARs on a single squad, topping out at 120 muni per squad opposed to 60 for grens.
Also, riflemen match up very nicely vs pioneers, making said pioneer only really useful together with an mg to spot and dmg suppressed units. So a wehrmacht that skips the MG will struggle to make use of the pioneer in combat, so they are usually just sent around the map to cap. But that leaves you down one unit, which can make all the difference in early fights. And the grenades can easily swing fights too.
Grenadiers really shine in the midgame vs USF, when they have vet2 accuracy bonus and upgraded weapons (mg42 or G43). But due to the double bar possibility, riflemen will win out again in the lategame.
So as with most things in CoH2, it's about understanding the place of a unit in a factions overall army and understanding its powerspikes over the duration of the match and how they match up against enemy powerspikes.
And when looked at holistically, I think grens and rifles are well balanced.