I think you've got some of your facts wrong, but there have been some jumps, most likely due to your trading absence.

Keys gradually increased from about 2.22 ref initially, due to increased demand, and people wanting to unbox crates, with a larger group of players playing TF2 and less buying keys, demand began to increase. In addition, when the Eerie halloween crate was released, people would often only accept keys for eerie keys, driving up value.
There are a colossal number of reasons, but I feel that these were the main ones.

As for buds, it's only logical they go up. They started at, I don't know, less than 10 keys originally, but because the number of buds in the game only ever goes down, (No more are introduced, people quit TF2 with buds still in BP) and demand is constantly going up, the value increases.
There was a bit of a jack up from 26 keys to 28-29 keys in a short time due to artificial inflation on BMOCs, people thought they'd get more valuable as Christmas approaches, and they did for a while, but shortly after the market crashed. Since BMOCs were in high demand, and buds were the main currency, demand for buds went up, increasing their prices. Of course, they've stabilized again.

Hmmm, alright, but still, I don't really get it, even during Halloween I could easily get a pair of keys for 4.88/5ref but now people are asking 5.66 for them, I've just read patchnotes from last few updates and the thing I must've missed is that stuff from Store ir now clean, so it now makes sense that all stuff goes for a bit less now but doesn't really explain keys since their price remains unchanged and I doubt anybody would buy craft hats for the store prices.

Market seems to be all screwed up atm. :/

i someone is asking for more than 5 ref for a pair ignore them, they are just sharks the price is going up but not that much and history indicates they will fall at Christmas because a lot more people go and buy keys around that time

Originally posted by gentMr Taco:

i someone is asking for more than 5 ref for a pair ignore them, they are just sharks the price is going up but not that much and history indicates they will fall at Christmas because a lot more people go and buy keys around that time

I'd avoid calling that sharking, sharking is something completely different.

As for Dave's response, the value of keys generally goes up over time, increase in demand, there doesn't need for there to be a significant change in the market for values to change, it's not stagnant.

Imo yes there was a shortage of keys at some point, but keys starting going exponential when tf backpack put keys at 2.66 key resellers sold it for 2.77, tf backpack puts it at 2.88 key resellers sell it at3 , now keys gonna be 3 ref and key resellers will go for 3.11 till we get to the limiar of a bud per key-

Originally posted by kitten powa:

Imo yes there was a shortage of keys at some point, but keys starting going exponential when tf backpack put keys at 2.66 key resellers sold it for 2.77, tf backpack puts it at 2.88 key resellers sell it at3 , now keys gonna be 3 ref and key resellers will go for 3.11 till we get to the limiar of a bud per key-

This. Well to some degree, people will always try to make a profit, but I believe you will hit a point where supply is greater than demand, and the prices will deflate.

the key market might crash some day. but not til next thursday and most likely not this year either.

If keys become economically bulky for trade other items will start taking their place. This is already partly happening with Tags, Gift Wraps and Backpack expanders.

Keys are already overpriced in comparison with these though "only" by 10-30%. At 50-100% we can talk about "crash imminent".

I think i just had a miniture economy lesson XD