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TF2 Outpost by Fanbyte
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TF2 Outpost by Fanbyte
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djd97 10 Aug, 2013 @ 5:09pm
Backpack.tf Unusual Pricelist
Backpack.tf takes a lot of ♥♥♥♥ for their unusual price list. People complain about how bad/inaccurate it is. But why? Its prices are based on actual sales, thereby reflecting the current market.

I'm not saying that all the prices are correct, as there are close to 10,000 hat-effect combinations, and its based on volunteers devoting their time to update the prices. So, its inevitable that not everything will be accurate, but for the most part things tend to be fairly accurate. Again, some of the prices are pushed off even more due to the way prices are stored.

All-in-all, i think its done its job, and its done it well. Its target market is the same as any other price list. Its meant to be used by the less experienced to prevent them from making bad trades. Unfortunately, its that same userbase, which uses it incorrectly. I.e. accusing anyone who doesn't follow it strictly of being a scammer.

So, all that being said, i'd like to hear others opinions on backpack.tf (specifically the unusual section). Whats wrong with it, and what could be done to improve it. Please, share this around, i'd like to hear a wide range of opinions from as many people as possible.

The issues i see (and TBH, i'm really not sure how to fix it):
1) Backpack.tf is essentially based off of averages. With any normal item that sells there will always be outliers, and backpack.tf ignores the outliers and sets an items price based on the most common value an item is traded for. With normal items this is fine, but unusuals aren't traded frequently enough for this to be 100% accurate. (Think about averages, they tend to get more accurate as the amount of data used increases)

2) Item overpays. Anyone familiar with the unusual market knows thats sellers want an overpay in unusuals. Why should a seller spend time trying to sell an unusual for 3 buds, and then sell it for another unusual worth the exact same (with the same sellability) and have to start the whole selling process all over again? So the vast majority do expect an unusual overpay. However that leads to an issue, unless the person buying is buying because he/she really wants the hat, he/she is expecting to make a profit, but so is the seller. So, these leads to an issue. Is an item overpay really necessary? Well, yes and no. I'm really not sure what the right answer is here tbh...

3) The final problem is the way backpack.tf stores unusual prices (in USD), and because of this prices need to be updated more frequently. However, in order to update prices more frequently they need to have a better system to report old prices, and they also need more volunteers. Unfortunately, there really is no good system for storing prices, whether they're stored in buds/keys/USD. All unusuals fluctuate differently with the market. Some stick to their USD prices, while others stick to their bud prices.
Last edited by djd97; 10 Aug, 2013 @ 5:09pm
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Showing 1-9 of 9 comments
Chaos 10 Aug, 2013 @ 5:12pm 
The reason people hate backpack.tf prices is because it's not always 100% accurate. It's made by humans who suggest the prices, but we aren't perfect. Backpack.tf is always a good place to look, but not every price is trustable, just like you said. For the majority of it, it's good. People assume too quickly that if one price is not correct, all of them aren't.
Last edited by Chaos; 10 Aug, 2013 @ 5:13pm
djd97 10 Aug, 2013 @ 6:31pm 
Its hard to believe that people would hate bp.tf just because a price was a little off. To be totally honest, i have a feeling its more along the lines of, its cool to hate backpack.tf

My guess is that bigger/more well known traders don't like backpack.tf because it puts a value on their unusual, a value, which prior to bp.tf was completely up in the air. Now theres a resource, which has proof to back up a price. Ultimately resulting in traders having less control over what an item sells for, and eliminating their advantage. I.e. leveling the playing field. So my guess is, these traders don't like backpack.tf because it minimizes potential profit and hurts their bottom line. And newer less experienced traders either flock to backpack.tf as a resource to help them make better traders, or flock to more experienced traders who hate backpack.tf Essentially joining one of the two fan clubs.
FaelisongTalim 10 Aug, 2013 @ 8:37pm 
Fun fact:

Because it's the Community that makes the PRICE of the suggested Prices for Backpack.tf, And a lot of people trade in Outpost...And We all know how many try to "Quickbuy" stuff...

Yeah, You know where this is going.
djd97 10 Aug, 2013 @ 9:01pm 
Originally posted by {CotB} Psycho Psychic:
Fun fact:

Because it's the Community that makes the PRICE of the suggested Prices for Backpack.tf, And a lot of people trade in Outpost...And We all know how many try to "Quickbuy" stuff...

Yeah, You know where this is going.
Not really sure what you're getting at actually...
oba 16 Aug, 2013 @ 1:47am 
Yeah Backpack.tf take a lot of shit for their prices because if someone is trying to make a quicksell price about a bud under the old price, and a lot of people on outpost have made their trade so they are buying them for that price, then that becomes an actual price and not a quickbuy, which means your unusual has now dropped in value by 1 bud for no reason other than quickbuyers, that is why I would suggest bible.tf as it has prices made accurately by experts in unusual prices, not quickbuyers who have decided they want to make their quickbuy price an actual price. What i guess i'm trying to say, is that backpack.tf has very old unusual prices, and a change can be made by anyone if there are other people quickbuying, so I would not recommend it
djd97 16 Aug, 2013 @ 8:01am 
Except quicksells aren't factored into the prices. Quicksells and outliers are ignored when pricing an unusual. And if you think tf2pc is any better youre completely wrong.
Eng. Bobooo 16 Aug, 2013 @ 9:31am 
I really dont see point in complaining about qs. Lowest price on bp.tf is usually lowest sale, and if sale is way below other sales it s ignored out of range. Of course there are some outliers but if anyone has feeling his unusual is underpriced/outdated on bp.tf feel free to suggest a new price if you have proof it sales for more than current price. Other problem is when people think having price on bp.tf makes hat easier to sell and suggest random prices (often close to their b/os). Only thing I dont like are prices for new unusuals that are pretty unstable and I think there should be some warning at these prices since they are dropping pretty fast(have rejected myself 6+ roboeffect offers on my hat with b/o 5,5). gj backpack, but you d better check offers on hat you re buying yourself before trade
scaypies 16 Aug, 2013 @ 11:10am 
Alright, I don't hate Bp, but I don't really use it for one reason: Prices are finalized by admins, so the prices are... well a little bias, and that reflects on some prices (a good example is keys here... most of the admins that decide prices for the key are key traders themselves ;D). Plus, as you said, these prices are averages, so they are almost never 100% accurate, which is what people want. I know that sounds like a lot to ask for, but to be brutal, that's what people need for trading, and Bp cannot deliver that all the time.
Also (this is a nitpick but whatever), it's a bit lazy when you say you're a trader but you're not learning prices at all.... that's like going into business but carrying around a handbook that has all your prices for your mechandise/products in it, and every time you need to, you open it and go "hmm."
Really, Bp should be used as a reference source for pricing, not a main source... but if you really need to know prices, ask around. There are hundreds of very expirienced traders that can tell you prices and help you out... well, at least SOME of them can do that lol. Also, you can just ask around unusual trade servers, since you're bound to find something out eventually, and then you have a better understanding of the market and talking to other players, compared to just going to Bp and typing in a few characters, and copy/pasting a price. Sometimes, if you want to know a price, you gotta work a bit for it :D
djd97 16 Aug, 2013 @ 3:20pm 
@BackinBlack, the new unusual issue has been solved. It now requires at least 2-3 sales of a new unusual in order to set a price. A price for an old unusual that has been unpriced up until now (some halloween effects) only requires one sale. But in order to set the price on an item which doesn't have a place in the market yet (i.e. everythings all speculation) it requires 2-3 sales to price. 2 sales if they're relatively close, but 3 if the first 2 are completely different (i.e. can't tell which is the outlier).

@Sun, the prices aren't finalized by admins, they decide whether a price is correct or not, which is VERY necessary. A lot of people suggest prices based on what they want to happen, and a lot of voters based on what they want to happen. Hence why most key suggestions increasing the value were negative (even though they were correct), and troll suggestions to lower the price to 2.33 Ref are positive (even though they're incorrect). And i agree with you, backpack.tf should be used as a guideline. When it comes to unusuals, i can usually (9 times out of 10) guess what the price is without checking anywhere just by knowing the market, and the rest of the time i just check OP, i honestly don't use bp.tf for unusual prices--although i do find the price out myself the same way (going through the history of a hat). I personally just don't use backpack.tf for unusual prices because its too hard to keep everything up-to-date, and whenever currencies change so do unusual prices. On cheap unusuals the fluctuation isn't too bad, but it can get nasty on 10+bud hats. BUT, i do however use bp.tf for regular item prices, because its too hard to really keep track of all the items that exist. Based on the appearance, class, and slot of the item i can get an idea of what its worth, but whether its 2 Ref, or 2.33 Ref is really nitpicking, and thats where backpack.tf does its best. Bp.tf's prices are based on averages, so the more an item is traded the more accurate it will be. Plus, regular items don't fluctate all that much (once they're no longer brand new, and assuming nothing changes--i.e. added to a new crate). "that's like going into business but carrying around a handbook that has all your prices for your mechandise/products in it, and every time you need to, you open it and go "hmm." Thats actually very common in the business world.

As for asking around for prices....thats a very dangerous game. A lot of people say they "know" prices, but most of the time don't have a clue what they're talking about. But yes, the best way to price stuff is to either figure out the market, or go on Outpost and track down some recent sales.

Exactly. People need to understand backpack.tf is there to give you a general idea. Don't go quoting it like its the bible. Don't go accusing people of scamming for asking for more or offering less. Don't go on peoples trades and say, "Lower your buyout...you're never going to get it...Backpack.tf says its worth "x". Unfortunately people don't understand this, and its what imo, has really hurt backpack.tf's reputation.
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Date Posted: 10 Aug, 2013 @ 5:09pm
Posts: 9