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At the end of the day, I am not the developer/author of TMoC, and short of him coming into the comments section to definitively say "This is how it is", we won't know for sure. But I, personally, feel the evidence I have assembled and laid out above is fairly conclusive to my theory.
However in the specific case of TMoC, I feel that the explanation of this guide is supported by the vast number of contradictions in the Good Ending route listed above, contrasted to the Bad Ending being neatly tied together without contradictions). Additionally, The Non-Existent Future *directly* calls out the Good Ending differences with Insignium's accusations about what Fleur has been telling Rimentus. It's not merely an alternative timeline, but it explicitly addresses the other route. (cont'd)
If the player prefers the bad end, then The Non-Existent Future merely expands on that one. Whereas if the golden end is chosen, then the name of the scenario itself can explain away the inconsistency: it is what would've happened in the bad end, but that future is non-existent. Delightfully ambiguous.
Plus, this also happens immediately after Cerio just set an entire jungle on fire. If he had snapped, it was before Rimentus accused him of the recent crimes.
Finally, in the Bad Ending case you have to consider: if it wasn't Cerio, who could it have been? There aren't any really good culprits besides Verdori (hence why the Golden Ending goes that route) but as I noted in the guide, a lot of the stuff that implicates Verdori in the Golden Ending is contradictory. (I should probably go gather some more screenshots to add to the guide on that front)
While I do understand why most people wouldn't like it, I like the Bad Ending being canon because "Golden Ending is the True Ending!" is an expected staple of visual novels with multiple endings. It's common for them to take an "earn your good ending" approach where all the bad stuff that happens just magically disappears and everyone lives happily ever after. Sometimes it feels really cheesy - which the Golden Ending leans into heavily and deliberately (because of course, Fleur is trying to cheer up Rimentus by painting as rosy a picture of the past as possible).
It's very unusual and interesting for the game to buck the trend like that, and for a brand-new developer's first game that takes some bravery. That's why I was so shocked and impressed by it. I had fully expected the Live in Stalagshire update to either make the Good Ending canon or to leave it up to the reader to figure out as you suggested, and that surprise is what made me write up this guide.