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1: in the part that you argue that a rare exp mod of +20%, 25% from perk and 15% from meta progression makes it a +60% bonus and calculating how soon the upgrade is worth it, you are comparing 100% base exp intake to 160% base exp intake. You should instead be comparing 140% to 160%. As such, the effective increase from taking the rare upgrade is
160/140=114%
The rare upgrade only provides 14% increase compared to not having that upgrade.
2: Your entire calculation assumes you take the 20% extra exp upgrade on leveling to lvl 2 for the first calculation, and taking that upgrade on lvl 3 for the second calculation. I'll post a link to a google sheet for a more flexible document.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EqC9XEYjdrTCcKsGBVuLgAOroVY7d2hkKMlnK5oSVnA/edit?usp=sharing
Click on the instructions on how to use (I made it pretty easy to use)
Isolation only requires horizontal and vertical cells to be empty. Diagonal propagation can bounce on them.
On that rare exp upgrade discussion: a level up provides, in addition to the secondary stat you sacrificed to get the rare exp upgrade:
primary stat
earlier perk
better inn recruits
I'd consider a level up to be worth 3 secondary stat points.