Marvel's Midnight Suns

Marvel's Midnight Suns

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Mathematics of Marvel's Midnight Suns
By blkbutterfly
Exploit math to up your game in Marvel's Midnight Suns.
   
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Logic
Dichotomy
Choose a path of Light [marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]or Dark [marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]to unlock Hunter cards, collars and suits.

Trichotomy
Or choose neither and follow the path of balance.
Venn Diagrams

Knockback Crossbones into the attack zones of his own grenade's [marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]as well as the gunship's, to maximize damage.
Arithmetic Progression
Next turn, the heroism cost is 5.
Then 4. 3. 2...

A decreasing arithmetic progression.

Easy.
Next Turn
Going in the other direction is Storm's Crushing Blow[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com], increasing by +1 heroism Next Turn but also increasing damage by +358, in this example:

After 8 Next Turns, Crushing Blow has as DPS of 2897, easily able to one-shot a Dread Maiden.
Probability & Statistics
Mod Pools
In the above gamma coil analysis, cards revealed with a mod are marked by a star. They are one of COMMON, RARE, EPIC or LEGENDARY. See List of Mods[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com].

Opportunist has:
+1 Redraws
This is a COMMON mod.
At 51.28% or ~50%. That is 1 roll in 2 approximately.

Banish has:
Draw the last Attack played
A RARE mod.
30.77% ~ 33%. Or 1 in 3 approx.

Brooklyn Handshake has:
On redraw, gain 1 Resist
EPIC.
15.38% or approx. 1 in 6.

LEGENDARY mods reveal approx once every 40 cards (at 2.56%).
Consider that when you roll a Quick/Free/Conceal.
Mathematical Expectation
(Mathematical Expectation = Average = Arithmetic Mean).
Suits
Though Salem's Saviour[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]is an obscure Hunter suit, its math is simple, so let's start with it:
When Hunter KO's 1 or more Lilin, 50% chance to draw a card.
The mathematics is the same as a coin toss: if you toss a coin 2 times you expect 1 to be heads.

This doesn't mean you will throw exactly 1 head and 1 tail. You may in fact throw 2 heads or none at all. But the mathematical expectation is what you will get in the long run (over many coin tosses): 1 head in every 2.

So for every 2 lilin Hunter KOs, you can expect to draw 1 card.
Knockback


In the above screenshots there is a knockback chance of approx. 50% for both soulless: one a Soulless Brute[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]; the other a Soulless Beast[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com].

The math is just like for the Salem's Saviour suit, you would expect to drop KO one of the soulless for every two knockback cards. Or you would expect to drop KO a particular Soulless, if they were knockbacked twice.

Concluding: knockback in Marvel's Midnight Suns allows you to punch well above your weight.
Mods
Consider this mod [marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] on Blade's Daywalker[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]:
25% Chance to Apply 1 Bleeding
Daywalker is a chain 4. That is it strikes 4 times or up to 4 targets.
For 4 separate targets you would expect 1 of them to bleed[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com].
Or on a full combo[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] you would expect to apply bleed.

Again, although you have a mathematical expectation of 1 on a single card play, there is no absolute guarantee you will bleed the target.
Passives

Storm Attacks and Heroics have a 10% chance to apply Stun. Stun chance increased by 5% for each Storm card in your hand.
Above, for 8 Storm cards:
8 x 5% + 10% = 40% + 10% = 50% stun chance.

With Rising Storm II[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] playing Gale Force[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] to knock back a target, Storm will expect to stun 1 (if not KO-ed) for every 2 card plays.

Notably in general, once you have unlocked her level 2 passive, you can comfortably expect Storm's Arc[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]to stun a boss on full-combo, while keeping Live Wire[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]) in hand.
Vampyres & Turned Hydra (Season Pass)
Bloodsight
50% chance to apply 1 Bleed when dealing damage.
Expect 1 in every 2 Turned Trooper[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] attacks to bleed.

This may cause 1 in 4 Vampyre minions[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] to turn elite. Rapid Growth. Or for an Elite vampyre to gain Blood Frenzy[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com].

Combined, these passives can be catastrophic, as demonstrated in Firaxis' Developer Live-stream for Storm.

Playing a card with Bleed in a room full of 13 vampyres (incl. elites and a Hemalisc[marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com]), you would expect at least 3 of them to turn elite/frenzy (or for the hemalisc to birth). In this clip Joe plays Venom's Symbiotic Senses with Bleed and only two minions turn elite, he gets lucky!

In this next clip he plays Spike Burst, also with Bleed with 9 remaining vampyres (excluding the KOs) and 3 turn frenzy and/or elite, more than expected. Unlucky!

The full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_kMhVVLJrQ
Golden Rule
Never play a bleeding card
Roulette
Apply Stun, 1 Marked, 1 Vulnerable, or 1 Weak (selected randomly when drawn)

For every 4 draws of Nico's Curse [marvels-midnight-suns.fandom.com] expect 1 to Stun.

Redraw/play and deck two copies to increase your odds.
3 Comments
Lucius J Brutus 10 Jul @ 12:21am 
Since I couldn't find it (neither google's AI), I'm adding it here: Hulk's Rage increase damage by 30% per rage stack (maximum of 250% at 5 stacks). It's as follows:
Rage 1 -> Damage x1,3 (30% damage increase)
Rage 2 -> Damage x1,6 (60% damage increase)
Rage 3 -> Damage x1,9 (90% damage increase)
Rage 4 -> Damage x2,2 (220% damage increase)
Rage 5 -> Damage x2,5 (250% damage increase)
blkbutterfly  [author] 18 Aug, 2024 @ 8:41am 
@"Harry Dubois" :steamthumbsup:
Harry Dubois 17 Jun, 2024 @ 4:16pm 
I need to show this to my Probability & Statistics teacher. Most likely he never played this game, but we can only hope. (low odds)