It's based on random chance and luck
But that doesn't mean you cant improve your luck by doing a few things differently when you unbox!

First, Unbox in small amounts, and not too often.
Such as unboxing maybe 1-3 crates every few days or 4 throughout the day.
This will probably get you more than say, unboxing 20 in 5 minutes.

(based on how many you have at the time)
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Heres some cool info i've gathered throughout my many years of playing this godforsaken game,

* I've unboxed I think 28 unusuals, mostly low teir ones, but nonetheless, Unusuals!

* I have only unboxed maybe 7 of those unusuals when doing rage-enducing unboxings,
(i.e, 10+ uncrates)

* The rest have been gotten when unboxing maybe 1 or 2 randomly cause I feel like it, this usually gets better results, and has less risk.

It's a fact. You're not gonna get a burning flames KE on your first unbox!
(Unless you're extremely lucky of course)

The most important part of unboxing is having a good mindset about it! Thinking or predicting that you're going to get bad items will most likely end with you getting the WORST item in the crate.
So instead, think about getting the best item in the crate, or if you feel really lucky, think about getting an unusual!

Keeping your mind on what you don't want to get will probably just make you angrier when you get exactly what you didnt want. Where as having a positive outlook on what you can get will probably be much better for your self esteem and overall luck!
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*These arent really required, but I feel asthough thinking positively about unboxing, and not about the statistics and numbers of droprates in crates is good for luck*

CONGRATULATIONS!

Despite all odds, and against stats and luck, you got an unusual! Hurray!
But look out, the world of unusual trading is harsh and unforgiving, and you should probably look out for scams so you don't lose your precious unusual.
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Basic Knowledge

If you are completely new to unusuals and have no clue how to price them – I have an unusual, you do too, why don't we just swap? They are equally rare… right? – then this is where you need to know it.


No. Unusuals may be rare, but as a whole sum they are not equal in rarity. A very rough guide and explanation can be found at backpack.tf where a mildly accurate count of unusuals existing shows that there are vast differences in rarity.

1. Rarity

In general, the rarer a hat is, the more likely it is to be expensive. There are the extremities of rarity that can cost ridiculous amounts of money, and the best example right now is the Mask of The Shaman. It is expensive because it has been unboxable almost since unusuals were available, but extremely few of it exist, making it more wanted than others, such as A Rather Festive Tree, which is much much more common.

2. Appearance

This applies to both hats and effects, but effects will be covered first. There are many, many effects that exist (40+ in fact) as of this guide’s making, and each has its own specific and unique style.
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It is easy to guess which effect is the most obvious when you are playing on the server in-game. In fact, Nuts N Bolts is the rated the worst classic effect by the community most commonly, and Green Energy (1st Pic) is rated one of the best classic effects by the community. As a very rough guide, prices on unusuals are dependent on the effect they carry, the more obvious/full-bodied it is in-game, the better chance of it’s price. The hat itself also carries significant pricing changes. While hats are harder to agree upon than effects (one hat may look nice to you but literal **** to another), it is often easy to use common sense when you see a hat to give it a price range. A hat such as,





















There are 2 main websites (increasingly only 1 now) that provide unusual pricings on TF2. You must remember, however, that unlike other gaming economies, TF2’s economy is very, very fluid – meaning it changes constantly, all the time and everytime. These websites are great for historical snapshots of the pricings and sells they have been made for (Even if they show as current prices) as they are based of previous sells and not current offers and pricings one can find on the market.


TF2 Price Check used to be the main method of pricing unusuals, but since ~2012 it has become increasingly less popular and outdated, due to many reasons such as a failing system crushed due to excessive trust in users and manipulative posters/bots that spoilt the prices.


Backpack.tf is the most popular – infamous too – website to date that the majority of traders across TF2 currently use. It is, of course, never accurate – it only refers a snapshot of pricings and sells in the past that are as recent, but not current, as possible – many, many traders have used it as the bible of TF2 – it is a false messiah. Yes, there are other claims such as corruption and admin abuse which have not been proved or disproved, but the main thing that has to be understood is that it is never wise to follow it to the tee.


Here’s why.

Backpack.tf bases it’s modifications or setting of prices on previous supposed sells with proof given. These sells are usually within 2 weeks but in rarer cases can extend back months, and often times within a few days prices and sells on Outpost and other major sites change, leaving the price changes unreliable. The desirability and sellability of a hat also is never reflected on prices on backpack.tf, and this will later be covered.

Ok, So How DO You Get An Exact Price?

That’s the thing. You never will. If everyone knew the exact price of their hat no one would make or lose money. It is an imperfect market – no one knows everything -, but the main things you must take into account are the Current Offers if any on those you can see for sale, the Buyouts (Optimal prices) available, and if any, your past experiences with the unusuals as well as your friend’s past experiences. Factor in, of course, the tiers of each hat and effect to achieve a better guide, but remember. Nothing is perfect.
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I will continue this topic below!

I HIGHLY RECOMMEND READING ALL OF THIS BELOW!

I apreciate you reading my guide, as I put lots of time into making it!

Comment below with what you think! Or what I should fix / change!



gg no re.