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Slay the Spire >  Workshop > EYB's Workshop > The Animator > Discussions
The Animator
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Aphid 7 Jul, 2020 @ 3:09pm
A mathy situation.
Found this gem of a situation today:

https://steamhost.cn/steamcommunity_com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2158038169

Challenge: Given that there's a Krul in the deck (finishing off Reisen with her rewards with a guaranteed Blood vial), should Hibiki @ 8x9 be played here? What's the chance this goes wrong?

If I got my multinomials right, it should be 40%
Last edited by Aphid; 7 Jul, 2020 @ 3:23pm
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EYB  [developer] 8 Jul, 2020 @ 5:17am 
I don't know the formula for this particular situation, but by simulating it, it only goes wrong 10% of the times.
#1
Aphid 8 Jul, 2020 @ 11:49am 
Didn't remember the theory right either. Sat down and actually separated the problem into 17 simple binomial cases and did each case by hand. (6 hits on reisen straight -> 0.0013. One on either snake -> 1/3^7*6*2 = 0.0054 (etc etc)). Add everything up and it comes up at 0.11265; For the two cases where one of the snakes dies, I ended up just considering 7 possibilities of in which hit they die separately and adding all those in. Adding up all 17 cases ends in a total of 11.265%. Looks a lot more plausible. Simulating can help point out math mistakes, turns out.

I think multinomials and adding a 10th phantom hit and just counting the number of sequences that end with reisen isn't the right solution; it's more weighted towards hitting the snakes in actuality.

This'd make for a nice math test as a single problem by itself. Kind of neat. Think I'd still have decided to leave the enemies up at 11%.
Last edited by Aphid; 8 Jul, 2020 @ 11:49am
#2
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