There is a 37% chance of Bormann and the Army being able to disarm the SS and Waffen-SS. If we round up, that is a 4 in 10 (2 in 5) chance of being able to successfully. Not very high, but not as low as Himmler's 10% of successfully disarming the army.

My first try saw failure, naturally. However, as I had just completed a Himmler campaign yesterday, featuring the civil war, I wanted to try my hand at a no-Civil War Germany. So, save scumming a month back, I tried again.

And again.

And again.

So, I saved the day before the event fired and tried again.

And Again.

I tried from the moment I selected the focus to the moment the event popped up. When I started counting, I reached 31 fails, not counting the dozen or so before I started keeping track. Not, I am no statistician, but for a 40% chance to fail 31+ times in a row seems highly unlikely. However, I leave that verdict to someone better versed in modding or statistics than me.

So, is this a bug, intentional, or am I just immensely unlucky? It's failed so many times that I've just given up and closed the game, but at this point I'm genuinely curious.