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With reloads included, she had a 100% failure rate for that playthrough for over a dozen attempts. I'm curious if all npcs use the same Golconda system, or if Catubodua is unique because she starts with the seeker trait and a set amount of xp.
The wight trigger does seem to be related at least, because if you give her the Golconda trait she won't become a wight.
Thanks for your time and insights!
Because in another case of testing where I skipped the Jan 7 trigger, the next one only took about 5 years (also a failure). Skipping that one too, the next trigger was about 10 years later (also a fail).
I would have expected smaller ranges for dates and the outcome to be rolled closer to the triggering day. Of course, this is from a sample size of slightly over a dozen, so maybe it's not a 100% fail chance in reality. Just seemed unusual given how CK3 usually rolls from my observations.
Edit: I did some more testing on a fresh save. As near as I can tell the outcome and date for Catubodua seems to be determined as soon as you start a game before any time passes. On my new save the date is June 20 1239 and she succeeds. To test, I made a save as soon as I started my character, played until an outcome, noted the date, and then restarted from my day 1 save and let the game run. Sure enough, June 20 1239 the same Golconda trait triggered. She also starts at rank 3 Golconda with 75 xp and jumps to completion if she succeeds the trigger, so I'm guessing she's unique unless that's standard for npcs.
feeling "ready" is based on their golconda seeker xp vs their ai_boldness stat (the same one that determines whether your dread will intimidate or terrify them). maximum boldness will make them attempt the suspire at >= 50 xp, minimum boldness will make them wait until 100 xp
they will NOT attempt the suspire if they're in a coterie with a non-AI character, so that's the way to stop them
how RNG works in ck3 is unclear but the seed seems to be based on the game's checksum, so things like that get rerolled every time the game updates. in my current playthrough on the dev build, catubodua has succeeded