I don't know if that is the case for you, but when CK3 shows you any percentage of success it has already decided the results. If you saved in the event screen showing the percentages, the result is set, so it doesn't matter if you reload. Instead you should save before entering the event screen.

it decided before answer you give only if it land on different date in time will it reroll

Originally posted by Kuaneos:

I don't know if that is the case for you, but when CK3 shows you any percentage of success it has already decided the results. If you saved in the event screen showing the percentages, the result is set, so it doesn't matter if you reload. Instead you should save before entering the event screen.

Oh yes, it was surely that. I didn´t know it, thank you so much.

I succeeded with 46% befriended Galadriel and had around 80% of Moria at the time, I tried failed reloaded then years later with that same 46% I got in a war was about to log off for the night and tried just for the heck of it and succeeded. So basically point is just change any of the variables beforehand and you'll get a different result but just saving and reloading itself is pointless.

lol skill issue, killed it with 20%. Perhaps the calculations are made before pressing the button, try to skip time before save abuse casual.