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Europa Universalis IV >  Workshop > Draíocht's Workshop > Beyond Typus 11.5 > Discussions
Beyond Typus 11.5
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 This topic has been pinned, so it's probably important
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am
Historical Demography - Population & Objective Wealth
A phrase one will likely find in many places throughout BT's posts, discussions, & comments is "Population ≠ Development & Development ≠ Population".

There are many differing views on the role and meaning of development in Paradox games. In this debate, Beyond Typus adopts a mostly vanilla position that development is an abstracted representation of wealth & importance, placed to initially encourage balance and plausible outcomes based on real history.

That said, the population of various regions and nations *is* extremely interesting, and necessarily not completely divorced from things like development or province size & density, so this thread is where we talk historical populations. One of the primary focuses of this thread is to ground perspectives & impressions of various regions in fact, so far as one is able, to promote reasoned discussion with a minimum of regional bias.

(this is currently a WIP, and I'll be adding and transferring my notes for the next while. I do welcome new information & opinions, but do me a favour and don't overwhelm me until I have a chance to get organised ;D)
Last edited by Draíocht; 31 Jul, 2020 @ 11:40pm
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Showing 1-15 of 40 comments
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am 
Organisation:
The 1st post contains organisational outline, notes, preface, & continental estimates

The 2nd-4th posts contain regional estimates, more specifically for:
  • 2nd post - Europe
  • 3nd post - Asia
  • 4th post - Africa, Americas, Oceania

The 5rd-15th posts contain more detailed local estimates, more specifically for:
  • 5th post - Western Europe (Britannia, France, Iberia)
  • 6th post - Central Europe (Germany, Italy, Scandinavia)
  • 7th post - Eastern Europe (Balkans, Eastern Europe)
  • 8th post - China
  • 9th post - India
  • 10th post - Middle East
  • 11th post - East Asia
  • 12th post - Steppes & Siberia
  • 13th post - Africa
  • 14th post - Mesoamerica
  • 15th post - North America
  • 16th post - South America
  • 17th post - Oceania

  • 18th-24th posts are reserved incase the former needs to be expanded to accomodate more notes

  • 25th-30th posts are reserved for notes focusing more on polities' populations & dev balance, than regional populations.




Some Notes & Prefaces: (Feel free to skim)
  • Historical Demography is Stupid. -Seriously! No, seriously!
    -This field makes cryptozoology look mainstream. There are dead serious instances where population estimates vary by as much as 160,000%, and while there are different degrees of reliability from local historian X thinks Y number of people probably lived in the general area "some generations" ago, to contemporary censuses/estimates, to archaeologists' monographs based on excavated settlements "frozen in time" like Pompeii, the hard fact is guessing historical populations is for all intents and purposes a fool's errand.

    Despite all this, we're going to go ahead and be fools a bit in this thread, because something is better than nothing and the fun thing about a project like this is no one is staking their professional reputation on a formal thesis. It is just a bunch of interested people positing logical or extrapolated possibilities based on the available information.


  • A Population System in Beyond Typus? -'Fraid not.
    -Please note that there are currently no plans to adopt a "population system" in Beyond Typus. It is my considered position that historical demography is just too unclear in too many places, that any attempt to implement a population system would be overly fraught with guesswork, approximations, hypotheticals, and arguments devolving into pointless academic (in the worst sense) debates, all defeating the intended point of accurate representations of historical populations as a balancing tool. I know many people adore population systems, so I'm sorry to disappoint.

    I should also add that I have enormous respect for mods that do attempt a population system, it is an ambitious and admirable goal that does much for immersion in the few well-documented areas where the information available makes it possible to do it somewhat accurately.


  • So when does this all apply? -1500.
    -Unless otherwise clearly specified, all estimates and figures are based on second half of the 15th century (1450-1500) borders and populations. It would certainly be interesting to extend the purview of this little thread to include population change and track pre-Plague Old World, post-Colonial Americas, or post industrial populations, but that is a bit too ambitious even for me.

    I understand the instinct to want to bring up modern populations, or even early 20th century populations, but unless it is an extemely remote area with no outside contact until the point of the estimate you're referencing, please do refrain. 15th century populations and population distributions are in many cases very, very different than post industrial ones.


  • X is so totally wrong, you must be biased! -I'm just doing the best I can
    -If your country/your favourite country/your most hated country recieves an estimate you feel is unfair or inaccurate, please do not get offended; get evidence. I'm not pushing any agenda here but to assemble the best information possible, and as development ≠ population and I may still assign whatever development I see fit, I have no motivations to "tweak" or "creatively interpret" the numbers, though I am very critical of many historical demography sources. As mentioned before, this is the wild west of academia where good facts go to die, and there are many figures with political motivations, so do be wary of that.


  • I'm From X Mod, Can I Use the Information here to do Y? -Sure, But...
    -I'm posting this (really quite off-topic) thread with my notes to share information I've come across, so naturally I encourage people interested in the topic to check it out, and if they feel so inspired, to use this information. That said, please do offer some credit or link back here. It serves the dual purpose of acknowledging the work I (and probably others at some point) have done researching, and also promotes more interested people to stop by and share their thoughts, further improving the knowledge base. Regards -Draíocht.




Inhabited World
  • Size: 136,314,000 km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 420m, 424m, 425m, 427m, 428m, 438m, 440m, 438m, 458m, 460m, 461m, 484m, 500m, 540m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes




Europe
  • Size: ~9,899,000 km2 (~7.3% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 40m-190m, often 70m-90m, 73.8m, 79m, 81m, 81.8m, 84m, 84m, 84m, 84.8m, 85.5m, 87.7m, 90.7m, 100.4m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Dozens to hundreds of estimates, ranging from 40 million to 190 milion, with 70 million to 90 million being over half of them and usually considered a safe middle-average.


Asia
  • Size: 44,579,000 km2 (~32.7% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 227m, 243m, 245m, 277m, 280m, 284m, 286m, 304m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • I've only found a few pan-Asian pop estimates so far, though most seem very plausible if one believes the lower (< 100m) figures for Ming. If one believes the higher (> 110m) figures for Ming, then most of the lower figures look too low as China & India have historically been relatively evenly balanced, so that would give upwards of 230m in just China & India alone.



Africa
  • Size: 30,369,000 km2 (~22.3% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 46m, 46m, 54m, 85m, 86m, 87m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes



Americas
  • Size: 42,549,000 km2 (~31.2% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~55,000,000
    -Known Estimates: 8m, 10m, 14m, 15m, 19.8m 20m, 30m, 40m, 41m, 42m, 46m, 46.5m, 50m, 54m, 60m, 72m, 75m, 112m, 145m
  • Population density: ~1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Famous debate with no good answer. For now, pending more research, William M. Denevan's recent 54m estimate sounds like a good middle ground well within the realm of plausibility, give or take a couple million.



Oceania
  • Size: 8,920,000 km2 (~6.5% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 2m, 3m, 3m, 3m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 11 Jun, 2019 @ 3:10pm
#1
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am 
***************************
European Regionals
***************************
Order: Britannia, France, Iberia, Germany, Italy, Scandinavia, Balkans, Eastern Europe



Britannia
  • Size: ~313,400 km2 (~3.2% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~4,400,000
  • Population density: ~14 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 69 - Averaging 4,500 km2 and 64,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



France
  • Size: ~547,030 km2 (~5.5% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Iberia
  • Size: ~609,500 km2 (~6.2% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~9,300,000
  • Population density: ~15 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 67 - Averaging 9,000 km2 and 139,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Germany
  • Size: ~635,834 km2 (~6.4% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Italy
  • Size: ~320,500 km2 (~3.2% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~11,000,000
  • Population density: ~34 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 168 - Averaging 1,900 km2 and 65,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Scandinavia
  • Size: ~1,270,800 km2 (~12.8% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~1,650,000
  • Population density: ~1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Balkans
  • Size: ~551,366 km2 (~5.6% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Eastern Europe
  • Size: ~5,650,496 km2 (~57.1% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
Last edited by Draíocht; 8 Jan, 2019 @ 12:11am
#2
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am 
***************************
Asia Regionals
***************************
Order: China, India, Middle East, East Asia, Steppes



China
  • Size: ~6,500,000 km2 (14.6% of Asia)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 62m, 75m, 103m, 125m, as high as 325m, though these not taken seriously
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



India
  • Size: ~4,568,200 km2 (10.2% of Asia)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 79m, 95m, 100m, 110m, 112m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Middle East
  • Size: ~7,169,080 km2 (16.1% of Asia)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 17.8
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



East Asia
  • Size: ~4,721,300 km2 (10.6% of Asia)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 53m
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Steppes & Siberia
  • Size: ~21,260,420 km2 (48.5% of Asia)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev

Last edited by Draíocht; 15 Nov, 2018 @ 10:54am
#3
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am 
***************************
African, American, & Oceanian Regionals
***************************
Order: North Africa, West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, North America, Meso & Central America, South America, Oceania


North Africa (More or less Arabic areas, excluding the Horn)
  • Size: ~X
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



West Africa (Rich western Sub-Saharan, mainly Bantoid areas)
  • Size: ~X
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



East Africa (Ethiopia & the Horn down to Mozambique + Madagascar)
  • Size: ~X
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



South Africa (Khoisan territory, more or less RSA, Botswana & Nambia)
  • Size: ~X
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



North America
  • Size: 21,989,000 km2 (~16.1% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~10,000,000
    -Known Estimates: 0.5m, 1m, 2m, 2.1m, 2.8m, 6m, 7m, 8m, 10m, 11m, 12m, 16m, 18m
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Mesoamerica & Central America
  • Size: 2,720,000 km2 (~2.0% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 3,550k - 57,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



South America
  • Size: 17,840,000 km2 (~13.1% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 4,500k - 38,750k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev



Oceania
  • Size: 8,920,000 km2 (~6.5% of inhabited world)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 3,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
Last edited by Draíocht; 8 Jan, 2019 @ 12:59am
#4
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am 
***************************
Western Europe Detailed
***************************
Order: Britannia, France, Iberia



Britannia
  • Size: ~313,400 km2 (~3.2% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~4,400,000
    -Known Estimates: 3,942k, 4,742k, 5,000k
  • Population density: ~14 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 69 - Averaging 4,500 km2 and 64,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Britannia's population, somewhat surprisingly to me, is not at all certain in the 15th century. Despite the relatively small number of relatively united polities, historical censuses, and being one of the centres of the western world, estimates vary wildly. It is important to bear in mind these figure are in the aftermath of the Black Death and in the context of the Hundred Years' War.

    Roman Britain, some 1,100 years before our 1444 start, is generally believed to have contained about 4m people (though some estimates are as low as 1m, others as high as 6m), with likely at least another 0.5m north of the wall and 0.5m in Ireland. This 5m+ would fall to perhaps 2m, if that, in the Dark Ages after the Fall of Rome and in the wake of Germanic Invasions, Ireland & Scotland likely being a majority of that, before rising again to 2m in England by 1086 (Doomsday Book) and probably upwards of 1m in both Scotland and Ireland each. The population continued to surge, and some estimates even go as high as 11m+ (6m in England, 0.5m in Wales, 2.5m in Ireland, 2m in Scotland) by 1200, but this number would plumet with the Plagues (1349-->) and famines (1315-1317 especially) of the 14th century. This dramatic fall is universally agreed upon, but the exact figures on either side of it are not.
    England
  • Size: ~130,300 km2 (~41.6% of Britannia)
  • Posited population: ~2,100,000
    -Known Estimates: 1,900k, 2,100k (1430), 2,100k (1460), 2,365k, 2,250k (w/ Wales), 3,500k (w/ Wales), 3,600k (w/ Wales), 2,500 (1400), 3,000k (1530), 3,750k (w/ Wales)
  • Population density: ~16 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 27 - Averaging 4,800 km2 and 78,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • England possesses by far the largest area and best land in Britannia, and is the logical cluster of the largest population in the British Isles, but England was still a young country in the 15th century. After gaining and losing massive population over the past 1000 years, England seems to have been at something of a low point in the 15th century, recovering somewhat slowly from the Black Death, which hit England harder than Scotland, Ireland, or Wales due to England's much greater proportion of urban population. Estimates seem to tend towards the 2m-3m range, which does indeed sound quite plausible, though I'm opting for the lower end of the spectrum. The Hundred Years' War didn't do England any favours, and while the 1340s date for the initial outbreak of the Black Death is well known, no fewer than 30 individual outbreaks of plague have been documented all the way into the 1500s.
    Ireland
  • Size: ~84,400 km2 (~26.9% of Britannia)
  • Posited population: ~1,100,000
    -Known Estimates: 250k, 400k, 700k, 750k, 800k, 800k, 800k, 900k, 1,000k, 1,200k, 1,400k, 1,700k, 2,400k
  • Population density: ~13 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 17 - Averaging 5,000 km2 and 64,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Noting the 250k-2.4m range of estimates above, one quickly realises the population of Ireland is very unclear in the earlier period. An important point to keep in mind is that Ireland was unusually rural but also very populated. Obviously 15th century populations were more rural than today, but most European regions had at least several cities well in excess of 25k or so, while and farms were quite spread out and much of the land was unused or unoccupied. Ireland, on the other hand, has consistantly been at or near carry capacity from nearly the dawn of recorded history until the Great Famine, according to most sources, with a very evenly spread rural population and very little "empty" land, yet the first "cities" of more than a couple families only came with the Vikings.

    The precedent set elsewhere is highly rural distributions are difficult to estimate, but most estimates end up being lower than reality when censuses were later conducted. This makes me suspect a figure at the higher end of the estimates, but the scholarly consensus seems to suggest the ~1m range, so not being an expert I'm deferring to the experts for now.
    Scotland
  • Size: ~77,900 km2 (~24.9% of Britannia)
  • Posited population: ~850,000
    -Known Estimates: 500k, 500k, 600k, 750k, 800k, 1,000k
  • Population density: ~11 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 19 - Averaging 4,100 km2 and 45,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • I am of the considered opinion that older population estimates for Scotland are often too low. Though the glory days of the Isles was long past even by our earlier start, the Highlands and Islands of Scotland were considerably more populated, influential, and richer in the earlier period than after the Clearances. Today, almost 95% of Scotland lives in the Lowlands and the Highlands has one of the lowest population densities in the temperate world (at 9/km2). In 1450, I strongly suspect it was less than 65% living in the Lowlands, and the population density of the Highlands would have been barely (if any) lower than it is today. The Isles, especially, probably had around x3 the population in 1450 than they did in 2000.
    Wales
  • Size: ~20,800 km2 (~6.6% of Britannia)
  • Posited population: ~350,000
    -Known Estimates: 250k, 278k (1536), 400k, 2,250k (w/ England), 3,500k (w/ England), 3,600k (w/ England)
  • Population density: ~17 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 6 - Averaging 3,500 km2 and 53,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Far too often linked to or included in estimates for England, which makes regional estimates difficult (as does Welsh nationalism!), but the general gist seems to be that Wales had a similar or higher density than England, and was generally more stable and established than the still-young England, though it also lacked the rich lands found in SE Britain, and the rugged terrain imposed some limits. All things considered, I'm more or less splitting the low estimate of 250k and the high estimate of 400k down the middle and calling it good, which also results in a very plausible density compared to other regions at the time.





France
  • Size: ~547,030 km2 (~5.5% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 8,000k (1440), 8,000k, 10,000k, 12,000k, 15,000k, 15,000k, 15,500k, 16,600k, 18,000k, 21,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Paris & Loire
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Occitania (Including Aquitania & Provence)
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Burgundy, Savoy, & Grand Est
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Normandy
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Brittany
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 850k-1,250k, 1,300k-1,500k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes





Iberia
  • Size: ~609,500 km2 (~6.2% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~8,600,000
    -Known Estimates: 7,800k, 8,500k
  • Population density: ~14 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 67 - Averaging 9,000 km2 and 128,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Castile & Leon
  • Size: ~367,100 km2 (~60.2% of Iberia)
  • Posited population: ~5,500,000
    -Known Estimates: 3,900k, 4,300k, 4,500k (w/ Andalusia), 5,000k (w/ Aragon & Andalusia), 5,100k, 6,500k, 7,000k, 6,800 (w/ Aragon & Andalusia), 6,000k-10,000k (w/ Aragon & Andalusia)
  • Population density: ~15 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 32 - Averaging 11,500 km2 and 172,000 people each.
  • BT Development: 486 - Averaging 15 each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Aragon
  • Size: ~109,000 km2 (~17.9% of Iberia)
  • Posited population: ~900,000
    -Known Estimates: 870k, 900k, 950k, 1,000k
  • Population density: ~8 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 12 - Averaging 9,000 km2 and 75,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Portugal
  • Size: ~89,200 km2 (~14.6% of Iberia)
  • Posited population: ~1,800,000
    -Known Estimates: 1,000k, 1,200k, 3,000k, 1,043k (Adult ♂ 1422), 1,262k (Adult ♂ 1527)
  • Population density: ~20 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 14 - Averaging 6,600 km2 and 128,500 people each.
  • BT Development: 242 - Averaging 17 each, 7k people & 380 km2 per dev
  • Portugal's historical population seems strongly torn between two schools of thought, one advocating a population of about 3m, and the other advocating a population of 800k-1.2m. The former, using numbers from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística, counts adult male population (data aquired how?) and extrapolates from there to arrive at populations typically very near 3m. The later position, obviously more common with low counters, also appears more common with more pan-Iberia or even pan-Europe regional estimates, especially those interested in GDP & urbanisation.

    Portugal certainly has plenty of arable land and a somewhat less tumultuous history in the 14th & 15th centuries, augmented by the fact that the very rural population would have been theoretically less affected by the plague centuries than some, so I am inclined to believe a notably higher population density in Portugal than the rest of Iberia, but a population of 3m gives a frankly unbelievable density of 33/km2 (matched only by Italy in Europe, arguably the world). At the same time, the lower counts often focus on the small size of Portuguese cities and, like in Ireland, read this as an indication of a low total population, which is in my opinion quite small minded, and historically rural populations are consistantly higher when finally censused than estimates suggest. I hate to be so crass as to just pick the number in between the two extremes, but something around 2m gives a very-high-but-plausible density and seems plausible with the influence Portugal exerted, though I have a hard time believing the population didn't grow at all from 1500 to 1736, when the first census revealed about 2.15m, so I'm going to posit a population of about 1.8m for now. This is a very small growth for 250 years, but Iberia's population is known to have spiked after the plague years but subsequently grewvery little until the 19th century.
    Andalusia
  • Size: ~28,600 km2 (~4.7% of Iberia)
  • Posited population: ~300,000
    -Known Estimates: 250k, 350k, 500k
  • Population density: ~10 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 4 - Averaging 7,100 km2 and 75,000 people each.
  • BT Development: 54 - Averaging 13 each & 6k people & 530 km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Islands (Canary, Balearic, Azores, Madeira, etc.)
  • Size: ~15,560 km2 (~2.6% of Iberia)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: ~X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 7 - Averaging 2,200 km2 and XX,000 people each.
  • BT Development: X - Averaging XX each & Xk people & XXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 8 Jan, 2019 @ 2:35am
#5
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:19am 
***************************
Central Europe Detailed
***************************
Order: Germany, Italy, Scandinavia



Germany
  • Size: ~635,834 km2 (6.4% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 16.95m, 25.55m (w/ Hungary)
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Bohemia
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Central Germany (Franconian, Rheinland, Thuringia, etc.)
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Low Countries
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Saxony
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Swabia
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Switzerland
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Pomerania
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Schleswig-Holstein
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Bavaria
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes





Italy
  • Size: ~320,500 km2 (3.2% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~11,000,000
    -Known Estimates: 9,000k, 10,000k, 10,500k, 11,000k, 11,000k
  • Population density: ~34 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 168 - Averaging 1,900 km2 and 65,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Italy as a united entity is surprisingly difficult to find solid numbers on. The only semi-reliable looking source I could find was an estimate from the Italian National Institute of Statistics.
    Northern Italy
  • Size: ~175,650 km2 (~54.8% of Italy)
  • Posited population: ~8,000,000
    -Known Estimates: Milan 1,250k, Venice 1,500k, Papal States 2,000k, Florence 750k
  • Population density: ~46 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 124 - Averaging 1,400 km2 and 64,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Naples
  • Size: ~86,200 km2 (~26.9% of Italy)
  • Posited population: ~2,000,000
    -Known Estimates: ~2,000k
  • Population density: ~23 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 27 - Averaging 3,200 km2 and 74,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Sicily (+Malta)
  • Size: ~25,000 km2 (~7.8% of Italy)
  • Posited population: ~550,000
    -Known Estimates: 600k (1500), 576k (1501), 270k (1436), 400k (1478)
  • Population density: ~21 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 7 - Averaging 3,700 km2 and 78,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Sardinia
  • Size: ~24,000 km2 (~7.5% of Italy)
  • Posited population: ~120,000
    -Known Estimates: 116k (1320), 85k (1355), 26k families (1485), 122k (1485), 67k (1603)
  • Population density: ~5 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 7 - Averaging 3,400 km2 and 17,100 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Corsica
  • Size: ~8,700 km2 (~2.7% of Italy)
  • Posited population: ~110,000
    -Known Estimates: 110k (1461)
  • Population density: ~13 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 4 - Averaging 2,200 km2 and 27,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes





Scandinavia
  • Size: ~1,270,800 km2 (~12.8% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~1,650,000
    -Known Estimates: 650k (w/out Finland), 1,450k (w/out Finland), 1,500k (w/ Finland?) 1,550k (w/out Finland), 1,690k (w/ Finland), 2,000k (w/ Finland)
  • Population density: ~1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 74 - Averaging 17,200 km2 and 22,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each with XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Information is surprising reliable surprisingly early, including some of the earliest and most accurate census data available anywhere, but a widely agreed upon period of growth at the beginning of our period still complicates estimates for the 15th century. It seem universally agreed upon that Scandinavia was one of the fastest growing regions of Europe, but the exact details are open to interpretation so working backwards from the first documented populations still leaves plenty of unknowns.
    Denmark (Including Scania & Slesvig)
  • Size: ~69,100 km2 (~5.4% of Scandinavia)
  • Posited population: ~600,000
    -Known Estimates: 550k, 600k, 600k, 570k (1600 w/out Scania or Holstein)
  • Population density: ~9 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 17 - Averaging 4,100 km2 and 35,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each with XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Denmark is surprisingly difficult to find information on, especially considering the relative abundance of estimates and information for Sweden & Norway, but every single one of the couple dozen estimates I've come across suggests 550k to 600k, though uniersally without any solid argument or source to back up this number. Despite the sparse evidence, however, I'm actually inclined to agree with this assement, assuming it includes the rich Slesvig and Scania. A figure between 500k and 600k would track nicely with known population growth, later censuses, & hegemonic balance, not to mention seem a reasonable population density for the small-but-richish area.
    Sweden
  • Size: ~380,000 km2 (~29.9% of Scandinavia)
  • Posited population: ~500,000
    -Known Estimates: 427k-531k (1571), 900k (1571), 550k, 600k, 650k, 800k
  • Population density: ~1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 20 - Averaging 20,000 km2 and 25,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each with XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Sweden is apparently one of the first countries in the world to have what could be considered "accurate" censuses, though these only date 1749. Prior to this, we have little information, but still better than in many other places. The 427k-531k (in 1571, not including Scania) can apparently be considered relatively accurate, according to one analysis, though the steep rise during the 17th century (over +100%) is hard to swallow for many, including myself (though I acknowledge Sweden was one of the fastest growing areas in Europe), and the more "theoretical" carry-capacity+extrapolated-from-later-census figure of 900k (in 1571, including Scania) is much more widely published. All things considered, I'm going to posit a middle-ground number of around 500k (without Scania) in the late 15th century, growing to circa 700k (again, without Scania) by the late 16th century and then experiencing massive growth in the 17th century to reach about ~1.25m, with Scania's ~150k being added in 1658, totalling to a somewhat less contentious figure of ~1.4m in the year 1700, and then ~1.8m by the first accurate census in 1749.
    Norway
  • Size: ~373,600 km2 (~29.4% of Scandinavia)
  • Posited population: ~300,000
    -Known Estimates: 140k, 225k, 250k, 300k, 300k, 400k, 246k (1520), 359k (1590), 400k (1600)
  • Population density: < 1 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 17 - Averaging 22,000 km2 and 17,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each with XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • For most other Scandinavian countries, I'm positing a lower population than many mainstream estimates, but Norway was a centre of a sprawling North Sea empire not so long before this, and hadn't yet been reduced to the status of client state it would become as part of Denmark-Norway. Some population estimates for the year 1000 even match or exceed estimates for 1700, so clearly the carry-capacity, infrastructure, and potential were there. Additionally, Norway, being so coastal, has the potential to aquire a greater proportion of food from the sea, which would have been a great boon during the Little Ice Age, and Hanseatic cities and trade routes opened up yet more options. A final factor is the observed population at the time of the first accurate censuses suggest that a low 15th century population (< 200k) would have to have grown by an implausibly large amount (~ +300% in 250 years) in order to reach the ~650k observed in the mid-18th century, which would be comperable to the growth seen in Sweden during the golden age of the Swedish Empire as it became the political & economic centre of the Balkans. I would consider it unlikely that Norway would match or exceed this growth in a period where Norway was very much secondary to Danish interests. All this considered, I'm positing a more or less mainstream estimate of ~300k, which grew only moderately quickly to ~650k in 1750.
    Finland
  • Size: ~344,300 km2 (~27.1% of Scandinavia)
  • Posited population: ~200,000
    -Known Estimates: 100k, 300k, 300k, 300k, 300k (1550), 300k (1571)
  • Population density: < 1 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 12 - Averaging 28,200 km2 and 16,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each with XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Frankly, the population of Finland seems little more than an afterthought in every estimate I've seen, but every single one that does say, repeats an uncited, unsourced 300k for 1500, growing from 20k-40k (not a typo) in 1150 to about 430k by 1750. I'm.... very dubious that Finland, even considering Swedish colonisation, increased its population 1000% in 350 years, and even more dubious that such a dramatic increase would occur during a time when the rest of Europe's population was in decline during the plague centuries. I'm also only slightly less dubious that Finland could increase its population by 1000% during the plague years and during the Little Ice Age, only to stagnate and not even grow 50% during the following 200 years, which coincides with Sweden's (and by extension to a large extent, Finland's) golden age, which saw neighbouring Swden's population increases by probably twice that in only 100 years.

    In light of this, I'm breaking with all the experts & sources (and feeling a bit guilty about that) to posit a population of ~200k in 1500, growing from a slightly higher 50k-60k before Swedish control, and then continuing to grow, rather than stagnating as many estimates suggest, after 1500. I'd posit an especially large growth in the 17th century, which also saw Sweden's population boom, in order to bring the total to the ~450k first observed in organised censuses.
    Iceland (& Faroe Islands + Jan Mayen)
  • Size: ~103,800 km2 (~8.2% of Scandinavia)
  • Posited population: ~50k
    -Known Estimates: 30k-120k (widely agreed that population rose & fell often & quickly)
  • Population density: < 1 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 7 - Averaging 14,800 km2 and 7,000 people each.
  • BT Development: 18 - Averaging 3 each with 3k people & 5,800 km2 per dev
  • First census in 1703 revealed around 50k, but the population of Iceland seemed to have been a story of repeated population growth, followed by dramatic falls as carry capacity was exceeded. Estimates suggest as much as 120k at various points in history, only to fall to 30k-40k after plague or famine, climb back up to over 100k, then fall again. In total, 37 serious famines have been reported in our period in Iceland, so I imagine the population at any given time was averaging about 40k to 60k stable.
Last edited by Draíocht; 8 Jan, 2019 @ 1:08am
#6
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:20am 
***************************
Eastern Europe Detailed
***************************
Order: Balkans, Eastern Europe



Balkans
  • Size: ~551,366 km2 (~5.6% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 4,500k, 8,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Southern (Greece, Turkish Thrace, & Albania)
  • Size: ~184,469 km2 (~33.5% of Balkans)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 1,500k, 4,500k (Greeks)
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Northern (Slavs -Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, etc.)
  • Size: ~366,897 km2 (~66.5% of Balkans)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 3,050k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes





Eastern Europe
  • Size: ~5,650,496 km2 (57.1% of Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Eastern Rus'
  • Size: ~3,937,200 km2 (69.7% of Eastern Europe)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 6,000k, 12,000k, 15,000k, 11,000k (1550), 15,000k (1600)
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Western Rus'
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 3,750k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Romania
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 2,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Poland
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 2,000k (1370), 3,250k, 4,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Baltic Coast (Prussia & Ordenstaat)
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Lithuania
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 500k, 1,250k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Hungary
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 1,250k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Livonia
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 8 Jan, 2019 @ 1:17am
#7
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:20am 
***************************
China Detailed
***************************
Order:



China
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 10:05am
#8
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:20am 
***************************
India Detailed
***************************
Order:



India
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 10:05am
#9
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:20am 
***************************
Middle East Detailed
***************************
Order:



Middle East
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 10:05am
#10
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:20am 
***************************
East Asia (- China) Detailed
***************************
Order: Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia



East Asia
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 10:06am
#11
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:20am 
***************************
Steppes & Siberia Detailed
***************************
Order:



Steppes
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 10:21am
#12
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:24am 
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Africa Detailed
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Order: North Africa, West Africa, East Africa, South Africa



Africa
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 9:55am
#13
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:24am 
***************************
Mesoamerica Detailed
***************************
Order:



Mesoamerica
  • Size: ~2,720,000 km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: 3,550k - 57,000k
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Area I
  • Size: ~X km2
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 14 Nov, 2018 @ 9:52am
#14
Draíocht  [developer] 29 Oct, 2018 @ 3:24am 
***************************
North America Detailed
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Order: Alaska, California, Canada, Cascadia, Florida, Greenland, Hudson Bay, Louisiana, Maritimes, Northeast, Northwest Territory (US), Northwest Territories (CA), Oasisamerica, Southeast, Texas



North America
  • Size: ~21,989,000 km2
  • Posited population: ~10,000,000
    -Known Estimates: 0.5m, 1m, 2m, 2.1m, 2.8m, 6m, 7m, 8m, 10m, 11m, 12m, 16m, 18m
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • This is.... a big topic. If you're unaware, this question can fill (and has filled) books & books and been the life's work of many a good scholar, so I'm probably not the person, nor is this the place, to do anything more than introduce the topic.

    Suffice it to say, the population of North America has become a highly politically charged topic. The one extreme essentially calls the native population savages fundamentally unable to have possibly established any meaningful society and dismisses native claims and higher estimates as baseless legends. The other extreme accepts oral history as fact and is often guilty of sloppy scholarly practices like double counting or failing to account for even the most obvious 20th century demographic changes while acusing the former of colonial whitewashing.

    Somewhere in the middle, there is a group of people trying to cling to some degree of objectivity in a polarised world where everything must be extrapolated several times beyond what any sane person could reasonably accept as a margin of error. We will almost certainly never know for certain what the pre-colonial population was, but here are some things to bear in mind:
    • The official position of the Canadian government is that 500,000 people lived in the modern country of Canada, roughly 1/3rd of that in British Columbia (9% of the country).

    • Non-official estimate of modern Canada's precolonial population range from 200,000 to nearly 2,000,000. The largest point of argument is British Columbia's population, which is estimated between 40,000 and over 1,000,000, though recent evidence, archaeology & analysis strongly contradicts anything under 100,000, and suggests more than 300,000.

    • The last official position of the US government which I could find is that 500,000 people lived in the modern United states (not including Alaska or Hawai'i), with an unclear distribution, though no native person was officially recorded on a census until 1860.

    • Non-official estimates of the population within the modern US borders vary much more, with lower estimates under 500,000 and higher ones nearly reaching 20,000,000. Estimates on the distribution of this population likewise vary wildly, though most agree the population was strongly coastal and riverine.

    • The scholarly consensus seems to gravitate towards the 6m to 12m range for the continent (North of Rio Grande), though interestingly many experts have ended up revising their estimates after publishing their initial findings, almost always going higher in revised estimates.

    • The majority of estimates are based in some manner upon population at first contact, which in North America was almost universally *after* Columbian Exchange diseases had already devastated the population.

    • Populations devastated by the the Black Death and others in the Old World bounced back, often within a hundred years or so, but Native Americans were hit by multiple different plagues almost simultaneously and had generally lower population densities, so the observed trend in North America was that these diseases precipitated a complete societal collapse which resulted in a continued population decline even after the disease had run its course. It is at various points during this continued decline that first contact occured with European settlers in over 95% of cases.
    Alaska
  • Size: ~1,627,000 km2 (~7.4% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~150,000
    -Known Estimates: 65,000 (circa 1800)
  • Population density: < 1 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 69 - Averaging 23,600 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Alaska, as remote and sparsely populated as it is, has a surprising amount of good work done regarding precolonial history and populations. A recent Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development research project in coordination with UAA's Steve Langdon outlines many details on the estimated population of various subgroups at contact, totalling to some 65,000 (actually 80,000, but I'm placing the SE with Cascadia).

    Though many of these estimates seem nearly beyond reproach, especially from a non-specialist, I did notice an interesting trend, which rather threw up some red flags for me. Universally, isthmi, coasts surround by steep mountains, & other areas which could be easily approached and quickly explored by sea average an estimated population density some x5 higher than inland areas. Islands average a further dramatic increase (~x5 again), and areas directly settled by the Russians represent another substantial increase to the average (~x5 again), to the point where estimates for small islands, a mere day's walk across, with early direct Russian contact often exceed vast swaths of land several hundred times larger. In many cases, coastal land and islands were superior to the interior, so this is expected to some degree, though frankly not to the extent one finds in these estimates.

    It is also worth mentioning that the estimates giving 65,000 clarify *at first contact*, which in many cases would have been after the populations were devastated by Columbian Exchange diseases carried by the Russians, and the (very strong) posibility of pre-contact transfer of at least some Columbian Exchange diseases, as well. All this considered, I'm positing a considerably higher 15th century population of around 150,000 or so, about x2.5 the mainstream at-contact estimate, which encourages much more plausible coastal vs. inland averages as well as track nicely with (somewhat) better documented trends elsewhere on the continent of pre vs. at contact.
    California
  • Size: ~409,000 km2 (~1.9% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~300,000
    -Known Estimates: 130,000 to 330,000
  • Population density: < 1 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 45 - Averaging 9,100 km2 and 6,500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • California's pre-colonial population is a somewhat better researched and more often discussed topic than many other places, though the scholarly consensus still seems rather torn despite this. Mainstream estimates consistantly arrive at the 130,000 to 330,000 range (in modern state borders) in 1770, though, and studies suggest the potential to support mid 300,000s assuming no severe technological regression or hitherto unknown change in the climate. (Unclear if these studies were aware of extent & fertility of Lake Cahuilla, I assume so?)

    Though some recent work is pointing towards potentially higher populations and there is circumstantial+logically likely evidence of population decimation from Columbian Exchange diseases (far in advance of any meaningful contact with Europeans), considering the width & breadth of the research done here, earlier documentation & smaller scope (easier to pin down estimates) than Cascadia, and transparency + back & forth discussion regarding all these estimates, I'm positing a pretty typical figure of around 300,000, with the note that around 1/8th of the modern state is counted as Cascadia and around 1/8th is counted as Oasisamerica.
    Canada
  • Size: ~793,000 km2 (~3.6% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 50 - Averaging 15,900 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Cascadia
  • Size: ~1,500,000 km2 (~6.8% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~800k (I'd call this conservative, x2 quite plausible)
    -Known Estimates: 175k - 2,400k, 133k on CDN side
  • Population density: < 1 people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 154 - Averaging 9,700 km2 and 5,000 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • First of all, it is worth mentioning this is one of the hardest places on Earth to establish a historical population for. Estimates vary wildly and many are arguing from a position of logic and plausibility, not firm evidence. That said, let's argue logically (with evidence where we can)!

    A major factor in estimates here is reliable evidence of several devastating smallpox and/or other disease outbreaks in the mid-late 18th century & late 17th century, each reducing population by *at least* 35%, but more likely 65% to 75% if precendents set elsewhere held. Several other unique factors probably contributed to devastating the population immediate before European contact, as well, which makes any estimate highly speculative and almost completely unrelated to the actually documented populations encountered at first European settlements in the early 1800s, which are widely accepted to still have been among the highest north of the Rio Grande.

    While direct censuses & European estimates are sparse (nonexistant), it is somewhat compensated for by a decent volume of archaeological research, which is increasingly confirming longstanding native claims of 100s of thousands to millions, not the 10s of thousands argued in the early 20th century. One may still find references to older (usually pre-90s) academic texts arguing for < 200k, but these figures are now usually regarded as "definitively disproven".
    Florida (East+West)
  • Size: ~188,000 km2 (~0.9% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Greenland
  • Size: ~2,166,000 km2 (~9.9% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 9 - Averaging 240,700 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Hudson Bay
  • Size: ~3,861,000 km2 (~17.6% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 78 - Averaging 49,500 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Louisiana
  • Size: ~2,140,000 km2 (~9.7% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Maritimes (Acadia & Newfoundland)
  • Size: ~300,000 km2 (~1.7% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 27 - Averaging 11,100 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Northeast (to Maryland)
  • Size: ~390,000 km2 (~1.8% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Northwest Territory (US, i.e. Illinois)
  • Size: ~670,000 km2 (~3.0% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Northwest Territories (+Arctic)
  • Size: ~4,700,000 km2 (~21.9% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~25,000
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 38 - Averaging 123,700 km2 and 500 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • There isn't much to say here, and I'd be surprised if much work has been done on population estimates in these areas. The earliest censuses place the total population of an area half the size of Europe at less than 30,000, and even as of the year 2000 the population is barely over 100,000. The absolute maximal population we can reasonably discuss here would have been minute considering the size of the region.
    Oasisamerica (Great Basin, Colorado Basin, Sonora, & Sinaloa)
  • Size: ~1,531,000 km2 (~7.0% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: < 1 person per km2
  • Provinces in BT: 71 - Averaging 21,600 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Southeast (to Virginia)
  • Size: ~1,007,000 km2 (~4.8% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
    Texas (Not including Louisiana)
  • Size: ~595,000 km2 (~2.7% of North America)
  • Posited population: ~X
    -Known Estimates: X
  • Population density: ~X people per km2
  • Provinces in BT: X - Averaging X,X00 km2 and XX,X00 people each.
  • BT Development: XXX - Averaging XX each & XXk people & XXXX km2 per dev
  • Notes
Last edited by Draíocht; 3 Jun, 2019 @ 1:30pm
#15
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