********* TOP SECRET ********* 25121998 0800 ZULU / 0600 LOCAL TO: AIR MARSHALL BEN TAYLOR, SOUTH ASIAN ALLIED FORCE (SAAF) FROM: PRIME MINISTER JOHN HOWARD SUBJ: KELOMPOK ENAM COUP IN INDONESIA AND ONGOING CRISIS GOOD MORNING AND MERRY CHRISTMAS AIR MARSHALL TAYLOR, DESPITE OUR BEST DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE, INDONESIA HAS DESCENDED INTO COMPLETE NATIONAL CHAOS. THE INDONESIAN JAVA FRONT (IJF), OR "KELOMPOK ENAM", AS THEY LIKE TO BE REFERRED TO, IS A MILITANT MUSLIM WING OF SENIOR JAVANESE OFFICERS. AS OF NOON YESTERDAY, THIS GROUP HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF INDONESIA JAVA. WITH THE CRUMBLING INDONESIAN ECONOMY, THE IJF HAVE ENJOYED ALMOST COMPLETE POPULAR SUPPORT FROM JAKARTA, SURABAYA, CILACAP AND HASIM. WITH THIS SUPPORT, THE IJF HAVE GAINED THE LOYALTY OF MOST MILITARY AND ITS SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE ON THE ISLAND OF JAVA, INCLUDING THE SURABAYA NAVAL BASE. THE REMAINING INDONESIAN TRIBAL AND ETHNIC GOVERNING BODIES HAVE ALL BUT ACQUIESCED TO THIS COUP AND HAVE ASKED FOR REGIONAL CALM WHILE A NEW GOVERNING BODY IS CREATED VIA THE IJF IN JAKARTA. THE "KELOMPOK ENAM" HAVE ANNOUNCED ON RADIO AND TELEVISION TO "UNITE" THE COUNTRY ALONG ITS THEOCRATIC AND ETHNIC VISION. WE BELIEVE THE IJF WILL NOT STOP WITH JUST JAVA AND OUR AMERICAN FRIENDS CONCUR. KH-11 IMPROVED CRYSTAL PASSES INDICATE INTENSE PREPARATIONS AT SURABAYA NAVAL BASE TO MOVE ON THE MORE RESOURCE RICH SUMATRA AND KALIMANTAN LAND MASSES. WE HAVE COUNTED AT LEAST 4 FAST PATROL BOATS ALONG WITH AT LEAST ONE SUBMARINE, THREE FRIGATES, AND VARIOUS LANDING ASSETS. ALARMINGLY, THE KH-11 SPOTTED SEVERAL EMPTY 3000 TEU INDONESIAN CONTAINER SHIPS IN AND AROUND THE SUNDA AND LOMBOK STRAITS (FIGURE 1) LAYING, WHAT WE BELIEVE ARE VINTAGE SOVIET FLOATING NAVAL MINES. WE BELIEVE THE IJF ARE TRYING TO HIDE THE MINE-LAYING VIA ITS COMMERCIAL VESSEL FLEET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, WE DO NOT HAVE DEFINITIVE INTELLIGENCE INDICATING THAT THE IJF HAS INDEED MINED THE SUNDA AND LOMBOK STRAITS; HOWEVER, IF TRUE, IT PUTS THE WORLDS COMMERCIAL CONTAINER SHIP TRAFFIC IN QUITE A PREDICAMENT, AND MINE SWEEPING ACTIVITIES MUST BE EXPEDITED. OPERATIONAL IMAGE[i1097.photobucket.com] FIGURE 1 THIS ABOVE TACTIC ONLY MAKES SENSE IF THE INTENT OF THE IJF IS TO CUT OFF AUSTRALIAN/ALLIED (SAAF) INTERVENTION IN ITS FUTURE PLANS. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL PUSH OUR AIR AND SEA CAPABILITIES TO THEIR MAX. AMERICAN POLICY MAKERS ARE AS CONCERNED ABOUT THE IJF INTENTIONS AS THE AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENT. PHILIPPINE CABINET MINISTERS HAVE OK'ED PLANS TO MOVE AMERICAN ASSETS INTO A LESS USED AND CLANDESTINE AIRBASE IN SOUTHERN LUZON. SADLY, MALAYSIA HAS ONLY PROMISED MINE SWEEPING GEAR BUT NO AIRBASES OR AIRCRAFT TO ASSIST IN ROLLING BACK THE PERCEIVED IJF OFFENSIVE. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AND UNSUBSTANTIATED RUMOR, VIA RADIO CHATTER, THAT CHRISTMAS ISLAND IS A POTENTIAL TARGET FOR THE IJF. AGAIN, THIS ONLY MAKES SENSE IF THERE AIM IS TO DISABLE SAAF INTERVENTION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE PULLED OUT OF STORAGE AN OLD AN/TPS-43 AND IT'S ONLINE, IT WILL GIVE US SOME WARNING OF ANY ATTACKS BEFORE THE ARRIVING HMAS STUART. BUT CHRISTMAS ISLAND IS A SMALL OUTPOST AND IS COMPLETELY UNDEFENDED AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE SITUATION AS OF 6AM, DECEMBER 25TH LOCAL TIME. PLEASE USE ALL HASTE AND AVAILABLE ASSETS TO ROLL BACK THIS IJF MILITANCY, OTHERWISE, WE WILL HAVE A SOUTH ASIAN REGIONAL CATASTROPHE. A FOLLOW-UP ORDER WITH ASSETS ATTACHED TO YOUR COMMAND WILL BE FORTHCOMING. GOOD LUCK AND GOD SAVE THE QUEEN. YOURS SINCERELY, PRIME MINISTER JOHN HOWARD ********* TOP SECRET *********