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Keys prices are almost static, the value of the metal used to purchase the key is dropping. Mainly due to an increase in the amount of people playing after Christmas, (more weapons, more scrap, more ref) and because people have literally hundreds of idle alts running simultaneously using a VM like sandboxie.
The increase in the relative cost of the key is due to inflation on metal, at least, from what I've seen.
This has been discussed plenty of times before, feel free to search for the other threads. IMO a contributing factor to keys "rising" is the release of the Market. People in need of Steam Wallet suddenly realised their metal is worthless (can't be sold on the market), so they rushed to exchange it into keys. Obviously key traders could not have handled the sudden change in demand without "raising" the price of keys. It's a combination of that, metal devaluing as more and more people idle and the fact that keys hold a higher value on the market.
Now it will be interesting to see what will happen when metal becomes marketable. The current situation might stabilize and the price of keys will go back to where it was at ~3 ref. I'm just guessing of course, anything can happen.