Originally posted by samhudson333:

Nor for me, as I know and have proven the reasons

Nobody has really proven anything here, as that is very difficult, if not impossible.
If I have understood you correctly, your main cause is "a hyper-inflation of the supply of refined" "due to idling accounts".

I have yet to see evidence of that and also cannot see any reason why there should have been such a sudden and dramatic increase in idling in Oct 2012.

As far as I know, you still need VAC secured instances of the game running, which makes it hard to run many more idle accounts at once than what has always been possible with sandboxie.

Also, where are these users that only have Metal in their account and buy Keys for Metal like maniacs?

Originally posted by i lik typo s:

[...]

What a load of BS!

Originally posted by samhudson333:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPviP4WHEfo At about 6 minutes in, Aces sums up this discussion pretty well.

Unfortunately he does not really give any reasons why the Key price in Metal was / is rising at about 1 scrap per 7-10 days since Oct. 2012 instead of just 2 scrap per year as in the 1-2 years before that.
He just states the obvious that Metal is going down in value, which I believe is more the consequence than the cause.

So back to square one, I guess.
(not for me though, as I believe I know the reasons)

Since you don't have anything to trade, waiting to get them for free from drops will take you years, literally.
If you want it badly and fast, there is no other way than to invest money.
You can either find a trustworthy PayPal seller or buy Keys with Steam Wallet money to buy a Bud.

Originally posted by Archimedes "Sollux" Mouse:

Can I get a hint on what the site is? I have no clue what it could be...

That's gotta be a first! How did you even get here?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/

edit: ohh, that was a joke, a bad one!

Guess YOU didn't read what I said...

Also, where is that Vintage Max's now? Your "friend" got trade banned by Vale now and does not have the item in his BP anymore, and neither do you.

Anyway, if the admin responsible for ban appeals has blocked you, I guess he must have a good reason.

The sharking thing has nothing to do with you in this case.

It look very much like you gave your funds (Keys) to a friend to buy stuff (for you) because you were banned. If that is not the case, make an appeal and provide evidence.

Like a receipt that shows when you bought those Keys, inventory history when you received them and when you traded them to your friend.

If all that was before you got banned, I guess you might have a chance your appeal will be successful.

And assuming there is no counter-evidence that the other account is just an Alt of yours.

The sharking matter concerns "savage inuit"

We all know there are multiple reasons why the Key price in terms of Metal is increasing, not just one. What reason has what part and to what degree is impossible to tell.

But the rapid increase (thus devaluing of Refined) since Oct 2012 has only little to do with new Refined flooding the market.
There is no reason I can see why the injection of new Refined by idling / new / active players should have changed that much and fast.
There are new players and idlers, but I would assume just as many that abandon TF2 with their Metal in their account. Not everyone cashes out.
That's why it's futile to look at absolute numbers without having more data only Valve could supply.
I strongly feel it would only explain an increase of the Key prices in Refined at a rate not much different to the 1-2 years before October 2012.

It makes a lot more sense to look at what fundamentally changed since Oct 2012 and start drawing conclusions from there.
Two things happened: 1st Halloween and then the Community Market, which undoubtedly has an effect on new Keys bought in Mann Co, thus very likely decreasing the number of Keys in circulation and therefore lowering the supply of Keys for Refined.

A likely increased / increasing demand for Keys is the other big factor. Reasons being many again (among them hoarding / safe haven), and without being able to tell what reason has what part and to what degree.

So, supply and demand, that changed due to the two mentioned events - I have absolutely no doubt - are THE main reasons for the rapid Key price increase in terms of Metal.

If you look at people that buy those Keys now, I have yet to see evidence of people continuously buying Keys for Refined with backpacks that seem to have a never ending supply of Refined from idling, aka "The Russian Refined Farmer" or short: RRF. :)

I am not a big time Key trader, so I can't really say how common they are. But I would guess there are not that many compared to the overall market.
My guess, they rather sell for PayPal directly. But the Refined for PayPal market is not very big either to make a huge difference, in my experience / opinion.

Anyway, Keys now have a relatively stable value (NOT price in terms of Metal), and that's what people like to have, stability.

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

Then the current argument is that ref is competing against money for keys. One in the trading market and the other in secondary market. Correct?

Kind of, I guess. Since you can't use your Refined to "cash out" in the Community Market, you have to use Keys, or stuff you buy with Keys, that you buy with your Refined.

That may be another cause of the high demand and willingness to pay more.

But the biggest factor is, I guess, that less new Keys are bought from Mann Co. with the introduction of the Market (lower price there), but instead are "recycled". That too leads to a relatively low supply (but not necessarily abs. numbers in ex.) in the secondary Market for Refined.

So, I would say, the Community Market both increased the demand of Keys while also decreasing the supply of Keys in circulation. (not the same as abs. numbers in ex.)

How much effect each of those factors have, is anybodies guess. There is for sure more factors, like speculation and getting your funds into a safe haven (compare to gold irl).


Another thing is, Vintages, unlike buds and bill's, can be used in crafting. So they have some link to Metal. Not sure if that matters though.

I used a Vintage Cloak and Dagger once in crafting when PDA Tokens and Spy Watches were impossible to get.