Originally posted by samhudson333:

http://tf2finance.com/keys/

Here you can see that while the value of a key in terms of refined has increased over time, the value of a key in terms of US dollars has decreased over time, though much slower. This shows that the value of keys has deflated, while the value of refined has deflated much faster.

Irrelevent to trading. Also, as for the RL value. Ref has droped 5% in monetary value in the last 2 months. It would need to drop over 20% to show a correlation to the change in value in the trading. The RL argument just doesnt hold up.

In fact the stable price of $.36 to $.40, for ref, in ref, actually proves that its value hasnt been lost at all. Thank you for the money angle, it is helping my point now.

Originally posted by norby89:

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

I will state this here as well. Keys by deffinition can not be currency. Currency has only the one function of being a medium of exchange. The key's primary function is to open crates. Because of that they are increase in value and for no other reason.

And the primary function of metal is to craft items. Aren't you contradicting yourself here?

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

I am making the argument that metal has not devulued at all. The next link shows the price voting history for the vint stokebroker scarf.

Well if metal has maintained the same buying power then try to find somebody who'd sell you Buds for 70 Ref. *spoiler*you won't*spoiler*

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

If metal is devaluing then whatever it buys is effected. These two items would have to show an increase in price by 50% in order to say that metal (the only true currency in the game) has devalued.

That did not happen. Metal has maintained its value and the key, independantly, has increase in value.

Low tier items and Mid-High tier items, 2 entirely different worlds. Please read my previous posts.

Isn't the crafting of one of the many carftable items just exchanging the metal for an item you want. This is also known as purchasing. Im not contradicting myself. Since not every item can be crafted, (buds) those items must be value differently, like what is their disirability compared to craftable items and so forth.

Buds are mistakenly attached to keys.

The point of low tier and higher tier is frustrating and has been made more so by the value increase of the key.

Originally posted by samhudson333:

Just because an item has other uses does not make it no longer a currency. Gold is the basic currency. At one point in time, all US currency was backed by gold or silver at the US Treasury. Gold is also incredibly useful in circuitry. That does not make it any less of a currency. The value of keys remains relatively stable over short periods of time, but overall has deflated since my trading career began, and since they came into existence. Refined deflates in value at a much faster pace, thus making the value of a key in terms of a refined increase, when its actual monetary value does not increase at the same proportion.

Dual purpose is the reason no one uses gold as its national currency anymore.

What someone sells a key for outside the game has no bearing on the trading value. These are two seperate markets that share some goods.

Originally posted by Kahgro:

Simple keys don't go up, ref goes down. Why have keys remained stable in terms of RL money, while ref goes down? Because ref is a currency that is inflated because its not capped.

Ref has not deflated at all.

http://backpack.tf/vote/311/3/0
http://backpack.tf/vote/336/3/0

These 2 item price histories show a stable price thru the period of major price increase in the key. If ref had devalued than these items would be forced to increase price by the same 50%. They didn't show any move. If you look accross all, lower value, items, none of them show the needed price increase that would be typical if ref was deflating.

I have pointed out vintage items but could also find older genuine items as examples. Both of which are unaffected by the drop system or store purchases.

I also want to add that my arguement said nothing anout the RL value. I am only concerned with the trading market. The money connection is irrelevant.

As far as cap. There is about the same amount of ref in the game now as a month ago. Another sign that there has been no deflation in metal.

I have been saying in several other places that the Key is not, by deffinition, currency. As currency can only have one function and that is to be a medium of exchange. The key's purpose is for openning crates.

Now that I have said that than I can establish the fact that the key's increased value should be recognized as an increase indepedant of all other items in the game. What do I mean by this? If the key increases independantly than other items than it should hold true for all items in tf2. For example:

http://backpack.tf/vote/311/3/0

This link shows price history for vint buff sandvich. It has remained generally the same for the last bunch of months but at one time was listed at a key when the key was closer to its natural price of 3 ref. As the key increases this item is only listed in ref and not because it lost value but because the key pulled away from it.

Anecdotally, if the seller didn't care, would you rather pay 4 ref for an item or 1 key. Most of you would do the 4 ref.

In this vain of thought I am suggesting that all the items that currently use keys as a price should equally be considered. In other words, the just because the Key increased in value doesn't mean the Bills Hat did. Did that hat become more desirable? And for what reason? Can you argue that the Bills hat is 50% more valuable than it was 5 months ago?

Based on that I see no reason that the Bills Hat should remain at its lofty price and should instead be something closer to 5 keys.

Please don't give the weak arguement that that the Bills is considered currency. Its a damn hat who's value has stablized. Nothing more.

Originally posted by norby89:

Originally posted by FmAh Jed:

Key hoarder's defiantly make a profit, 3 months ago keys cost ~$1.20, now they are ~$1.40, thats insanely huge gains, if you invested in keys as a general money then over a year at this rate would lead to ~$0.80 gains per key, thats over 50% per annum (doubling money).....

That doesn't have anything to do with metal devaluing. You can thank the all new Steam Market for that.

I am making the argument that metal has not devulued at all. The next link shows the price voting history for the vint stokebroker scarf.
http://backpack.tf/vote/336/3/0
This one shows the price history of vintage buffolo
http://backpack.tf/vote/311/3/0

Both items obtained thier price months ago and have remained about the same since.
Sandvich at 3+ ref, scarf at 1 ref.

If metal is devaluing then whatever it buys is effected. These two items would have to show an increase in price by 50% in order to say that metal (the only true currency in the game) has devalued.

That did not happen. Metal has maintained its value and the key, independantly, has increase in value.

I will state this here as well. Keys by deffinition can not be currency. Currency has only the one function of being a medium of exchange. The key's primary function is to open crates. Because of that they are increase in value and for no other reason.

Originally posted by norby89:

Originally posted by PSG Holy:

i can imagine one case in which the tux would acctualy gain in value. if valve would delete all alternative accounts which only hold a tux currently, the 30000 would be pretty accurate and yea, then they would be rare. But only then.

Again rarity does not go hand to hand with high value. Look at uncraft Hitman promos, there are less than a couple hundred in existance and they go for what, 4-5 keys? Plus in order for something to become currency having a high number actually helps.

That was my sentiment. I which case it would become a very good curreny.

Originally posted by Soveric:

Keys have been used as currency for a long time, so it wouldnt be easy to get rid of.

It was only used as currency because it was stable at 2.44 ref for over 1 year. I again think there should be higher units of currency. A metal crafted from ref.

The problem lies in items listed well above a key. Any item priced in multiples of one key show no adjustment for the fact that just in the last month the key has raised in value by 14%. Did all the higher value items raise by the same amount. No. That isn't logical at all. Here is another problem. How can a currency have varied value. The key is 3.88 to 4 Which means the backpack expander is worth between 9.7 ref and 11 ref. That's a pretty extreme range. It makes the difference in value actually closer to a third of a key rather than a quarter of a key just because the currency used is itself not stable.