Originally posted by samhudson333:

The keys value is one concrete entity, and its dollar price and trade price are functions of that. The key has declined minorly over a year long period, while a Bill's has raised minorly in price, maintaining value.

Trade value of key increased dramatically. Bills is stable.

Originally posted by samhudson333:

Keys have not increased in value, the graphs I posted clearly show their decline in value. What you're seeing and falsely assuming is a rise in value is a devaluation of all currently obtainable items, due to an increased supply of them. Keys are not rising in value, and over time never have or will.

Really, there is a decline in value of all obtainable items? Except those items that have "traditionaly" been posted in keys.

Please note an earlier post in coversation where I clearly show two vintage items, which can not increase in supply, being uneffected by the rise of key trade value.

Sorry, I amended my statement above to make it clear.

So the bills decreased in value too??

Clearly, the key's dollar value decline is not correlated to its trade value.

I am sorry I was not more clear, Kahgro. The new users represent a growth in the market. I believe a rapid growth in 2012. They bring currency and new goods in drop. As well as new demand for older goods. New users, that bring equal income note, expand the market, not inflate it. I make the point again that ref has not lost value at all.

The inapropriate use of keys as currency has inadvertantly caused a gap in access to higher goods and some mid ones as well.

Look at the timeline of key value increase. If the culprit was ref farmers or new users the increase would be gradual, simulerly to the Buds increase from late 2010 till now. It would correlate with the increase in new users. It would not be drastic as it has been. No one is factoring in that the most likely reason for the increase is that the key opens crates and future crates will hold very valuable items just like past crates did when they were initially introduced. As time goes on those crate will lose value as more items are released from them.

This is the cause for the keys climb in trade value, positive speculation about the future value of crates. What if there is a new hat? What if the boom-bringer, teufort kickers or the wonderland wrap are given unusual effects? What if the antlers, bouffant or 70s chapeu are made into unusuals? The only way to capitolize is to have a bunch of keys.

This brings me to my point about the Bills hat. The Bills is not a key and when the time comes it wont get you keys either. The truth is that the bills hat is actually less valuable then the keys it takes to buy it.

We must recognize that the key is an item. bills is an item. What makes each desirable is different from eachother. Its price should reflect that like any other good. Its time to forget that some items are like currency just because its been that way for a long time.

I fact the supply of ref hasn't changed that much in the last month. It is hard to increase the 1.2 million ref supply by 15% in one month. It took years to build up all that currency in the game. With so many new users needing ref to buy things theyve never seen before it would be difficult for the supply of ref to devalue.

The vintages are chosen because they have no connection to the current drop forces. Can not be acquired in drops or new promos. They are finite.

Originally posted by ;864961721721339862:

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

Isn't the crafting of one of the many carftable items just exchanging the metal for an item you want. This is also known as purchasing. Im not contradicting myself.

Nope, because you are destroying the metal in exchange for the desired item. It's like using a key to open a crate or burning the money you used for buying a bread. ^^

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

Buds are mistakenly attached to keys.

Alright, forget about Buds and *insert any item valued more than a couple of keys here*.

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

The point of low tier and higher tier is frustrating and has been made more so by the value increase of the key.

If you stay in your low tier realm this price increase won't affect you. Nor will it affect you if you stick to trading for mid-high tier items. It will benefit you if you want to buy hats and small stuff, on the other hand you will need more hats/ref to buy keys or more expensive items.

Than there is a problem because people used to use metal to buy even higher valued items. The bills would only have been 19 some ref last Sept. Now it would be 32 for no apparent reason. It does effect mid range items around a few keys that wouldn't have been that many ref before. Personally I won't use my keys for anything that isn't an unusal and I won't do that anymore. Its going to be more worthwhile to take 30 shots at the next crate than have an unusual.

Originally posted by samhudson333:

Yes, I said that keys have declined in monetary value, but at a much slower rate than the decline of refined. This is because all keys have to be purchased, while ref is freely given to the ever growing number of TF2 players, through item drops that are crafted into metal.

The ratios don't match the trading differences.

Because you thru it out. I have two bachalors degrees in business.

Didn't someone just say that keys also declined in dollar value thus showing its disconnect to the trading market.

How much has the supply of refined increase? Hasn't the supply of what the refined could buy also increased? And not just the drop items either. Aren't people still crafting items thus destroying some refined?

Originally posted by samhudson333:

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

Dual purpose is the reason no one uses gold as its national currency anymore.

What someone sells a key for outside the game has no bearing on the trading value. These are two seperate markets that share some goods.

Dual purpose is not at all the reason that gold is no longer used as a primary unit of currency. We no longer back our dollar with a unit of gold because gold has grown in value such that a penny can not buy a noticeable amount. You need a large amount of money to get a noticeable amount of gold.

The cash to hats market does indeed have a large effect on trading value, as it is an enormous portion of the economy. It is simply another form of currency buying items, and is in no way exempt from the principles of economics.

Exactly, Gold's value is independant of the function of the whole economy. It is one commedity and can not be used to represent all productive efforts that take place in the economy.