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The number displays the people in your colony. Lets take the picture as an example.
Lets say you want to have 30 people, so your desired population should be set on 30.
If you now have 10 people, you are in a "critically low population" state.
It means you have a critically low probability of events that causes you to lose people.
For example events like: Raids, you shoot at somebody. There is a "critically low" probability of him getting instantly killed. So he just gets downed, so you have a chance to get a higher population by capturing him.
On the other hand if you have 60 people. You have a "critically high" probability of him getting instantly killed, instead of getting downed.
You still can get people in that case until you are at 70, your max population. The probability to lose people is at almost 100% (or even at 100%). So the game will do everything to lower your population.
https://rimworldwiki.com/wiki/PopulationIntent