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Is there a way to increase the 5% chance? Maybe through a gamerule of the sort or modifying a file? In case I want it to happen more frequently.
It's not specified anywhere.
To make it more realistic, I suggest focusing on 'regional' crises instead of global ones, triggered by realistic factors such as ongoing wars, or overal ruler incompetence.
For example, a script could scope rulers within a specific geographic region. If a certain number of these rulers are simultaneously at war, it would trigger a 'regional crisis' affecting every ruler in that region. High-ranking rulers would contribute more to the "chaos factor", while smaller rulers would contribute less.
The new struggle system, added in 1.16, might also work well with this concept (though I'm not yet familiar enough with it to be certain).
This "regional crisis" concept could be expanded to include other types of crises. For instance, a famine or economic crisis could be triggered by too many rulers with low stewardship in a region, or a faith crisis by too many rulers with low learning, etc.
I've seen the throne be dissolved, but all kingdoms remained and were then basically just on and off at war with one another.
I've also seen the iron throne fend off war after war until the chaos era ended.
So, I really don't know, it's just supposed to be fun unpredictable chaos.