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(All values are estimates)
1 key = 7.88 ref | 71 scrap | $2.30 on market
Trading cards = 10 cents
23 trading cards = $2.30
You just bought a key for 23 scrap (2.55 ref)
There goes that "theory." Have you considered your approach?
Given your trades: http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/185040 It's really no surprise. I mean, it looks like you're trying to make money via getting lucky in Two Cities games and trying to sell an All-Father for 1.8 keys. Really? Who's going to buy that?
Well, not that you want it or will even listen, but here's my advice: Stop trying to gamble with Mann Up, sell your stranges and hats for a reasonable price, possibly even up to 1 ref below backpack.tf, get TF2OP Premium, and start buying and selling 2 ref - 6 ref miscs that have some stability, again at reasonable prices. My general rule of thumb is anything up to 3 ref at backpack.tf price, and then start reducing by 1-2 rec, which doesn't really make that big of a deal, but I like giving people bargains. For buying, it's... well, just look at some buying trades and try to offer the high end of those or 1 rec higher, depending on the price of the item and the profit margin.
I managed to sell a festive flame thrower for 1 key and 1.44ref. For some reason a korean bought it from me in under a week without negiotating. Like wtf? It was one hell of an expensive trade and it's cheaper than a key on the market.
However, when people sell/ buy for fair prices, they get no customer.
What's that sort of a question anyways?
The trade you posted is several months old.
Define massive. Seems like nothing special.
"However, when people sell/ buy for fair prices, they get no customer." --- No?
Are you just generalizing your own frustration?
-Don't expect massive amounts of profit to just come to you.
-You cannot make much profit if you only have a few items as you do not have much to 'flip'.
-Sharking is never a good tactic, especially when you do have more items and more things to lose.
-If you do plan on selling weapons for a scrap and buying cards for a scrap try not to stay with it to far. Any basic market like that is always oversaturated and full of bots (like keys).
-Especially when starting out or with little amounts of items, profit comes slower. Try to bump every 30 minutes on outpost and use other sources avaliable like classifieds on backpack.tf and trade servers.
My recommendations? If you plan on trying to get a lot of profit with trading, buy some keys from the steam market. If you get ~5-10 I would suggest selling them for metal and flipping some stranges and hats worth a few ref. Make a trade where you are always buying and another where you are always selling the items.
Hope this helps and the hardest thing about trading is being persistent!