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TF2 Outpost by Fanbyte
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Wrathalos 28 Feb, 2013 @ 7:37pm
The key to solve key inflation issue
I know this is long, but it is crucially important, read all before commenting.

Alright, we all know keys have been rising in price and are not on their way to stopping. Anyone with a brain who thought this out realizes this is making metal worth less every time it rises. As a result, things below a key value also lose value. But here's something many people do not realize: backpack.tf is a bible of prices nearly everyone uses to reference. Many items are valued through keys or ref (buds in case of unusuals). When key value goes up so does the items valued in keys, while the others valued in ref get the short-end of the stick (for example an item valued at one key and another valued at 3.66 ref. One day passes, key goes up and inadvertently the first item raises in price also, relative to the other.) What this means is, essentially, the richer people who have more items valued in keys will become richer and the poorer/newer people who have items valued in ref get poorer. How can this be resolved? Easy, the resolution should have been administered a long time ago: make every item valued in ref. Think about it, an all-father instead of 2 keys switches to 7.66 (same value just in different terms) the important point is the value of the all-father will be subject to change by itself and market forces not inflation of keys. Some may argue that this will be confusing for people who have multibud valued unusuals ect. This could be confusing at first but any person with half a brain can figure it out, especially if backpack.tf translates the ref into keys. What do you guys think? This will virtually solve the key inflation problem for the most part, all that must be done is a makeover of backpack.tf
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Showing 1-15 of 39 comments
Uranium235 28 Feb, 2013 @ 7:48pm 
yawn!

1st: you are in the wrong forum.
2nd: almost everything you say is wrong.

Try that post in the bptf forum and see what happens... your theories will either be shred into pieces or you will be left alone because you are so obviously wrong and no one cares anymore.
Wrathalos 28 Feb, 2013 @ 7:50pm 
How am I wrong?
Wrathalos 28 Feb, 2013 @ 7:51pm 
and no this is not the wrong forum, anything related to trading is fair game and also have you posted on tf's forums? they're pretty dead
Uranium235 28 Feb, 2013 @ 8:11pm 
I really am tired of explaining that whole Key business. If you were active in the bptf forum, you should've come across my posts too. I don't even see your name in the members list.

You do know that they have a new forum, that is not on the steam platform?

edit: sorry for being so harsh, but that futile complaining about the Key price and the many false assumptions commonly made are tiresome by now.
Last edited by Uranium235; 28 Feb, 2013 @ 8:18pm
Wrathalos 28 Feb, 2013 @ 8:31pm 
I am not angry or complaining, i just feel bad for the poorer people on outpost. If you could, please link me to your posts about this and ill be happy to close this
Uranium235 28 Feb, 2013 @ 8:50pm 
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/126-how-are-we-going-to-fix-the-economy-and-keys/
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/blog/4/entry-1-to-those-saying-that-the-supply-of-keys-is-unlimited/

Those are the most recent more or less related to your post. Others and I also made posts in the old forum (on steam), explaining why the price of Keys in Metal is rising (Community Market), why some items are priced in Metal (Craftables), some in Keys (Promos), why some change their Metal price similar to the price of Keys (ToD Ticket) and some not (Bill's Hat), and why that is fair, even for the "poor" - but I can't find them right now.

edit:
https://steamhost.cn/steamcommunity_com/groups/meetthestats/discussions/1/864958451431552725/
https://steamhost.cn/steamcommunity_com/groups/meetthestats/discussions/0/864960353851515483/
Last edited by Uranium235; 28 Feb, 2013 @ 9:13pm
Wrathalos 28 Feb, 2013 @ 9:50pm 
Read all your posts, it appears everything I stated is spot-on where am I wrong?
Uranium235 28 Feb, 2013 @ 10:46pm 
When I say "linked" to Keys, that is not to be taken literally. When talking about price, I assume the price in terms of Metal:


There is no Key price inflation. Inflation is an overall increase in price of goods, not just one or a few items.

The main thing is, that it does not matter what the Key price is, you still buy the bill's for 8 Keys and the common craft hat for 1.33 ref, e.g.

There may be edge cases that are nominated in Metal but are more linked to keys (ToD, Voucher) and the other way around, but those relatively quickly adjust their price as the Key price changes. (or rather as metal loses value in real money)

People with higher value items do not get "richer". They may be able to afford more craft hats / have more metal, but in terms of their interest (high value items) their buying power does not change.
People with low value items do not get "poorer", they can still have the same buying power for their low value items.
And the ones in between, well you win some you lose some.
The only thing is, if you want to cross over from low value to high value, you would have to invest more craft hats to buy a bill's, e.g.

But since most traders do that by initially investing real money, nothing much has changed. It is even an advantage that Keys have a high value in Metal, as you can afford to buy more low value items for the Key you bought in Mann Co. or the new Community Market.

Just because you list something in Metal does not mean it is paid in Metal and vice versa.

You cannot force items that are somehow more linked to Keys than Metal (like craftables) to have a more "stable" value in Metal by just listing it in Metal. All you will accomplish is that all these items need frequent price updates.

The only ones truly losing here are Metal farmers, and I think we all agree that does not concern the rest of us.
Last edited by Uranium235; 28 Feb, 2013 @ 11:11pm
norby89 1 Mar, 2013 @ 4:22am 
I can't help but say that backpack.tf must be a major contributing factor to the price changes for TF2 Keys. This topic has probably been beaten to death but here we go. Metal devalues over time that is true however that does not warrant 3 price changes in a week. Something like this has been unheard of a while ago. I'm not blaming bp.tf directly but the way the human mind works.

I have a bunch of metal that I can convert to keys for 3.33, no problem. I stop trading for 1-2 weeks and when I come back I look at bp.tf and keys are 3.66, what the hell? Ok, I'll just convert them now before the price changes again, herp derp. But wait.. everyone is selling for 3.88 or 4 ref and people are already buying for 3.77 or more, hell I must get rid of my metal fast. All the ones selling for 3.88 are out of stock, after endless hours of searching I give up and buy keys at 4 ref. That will go on bp.tf as proof that keys do sell for 4 ref and soon another price change occurs. Cycle continues.

It's easy to spot this trend and those with large amounts of metal will want to convert their keys asap so they all join the bandwagon, increasing the demand for keys and thus devaluing metal. There will be a point where it will just be unfeasible to convert metal into keys but where will it stop? At 5 ref? 6 ref? or maybe 9.33?

I wish backpack.tf didn't price keys in metal. At all. Then people would have to get up their comfy chair and do some research before they see what keys really go for. It's not that hard to put a key and a ref in the search field and look at 2-3 pages and get a basic idea of a key's value in metal.
Uranium235 1 Mar, 2013 @ 5:47am 
There is no vicious "cycle" bptf is responsible for and changing anything there will have very little effect, if at all, on the Key price.

Supply and demand are what determines the price, and bptf does not have an effect on both.

But I am not going into that discussion again why that is. I and so many others have explained that so many times by now.
norby89 1 Mar, 2013 @ 8:18am 
Maybe not directly but indirectly it does have an effect on the market. Don't underestimate the power of a huge flock of people who blindly follow price guides such as backpack.tf as if it was the Holy Bible.

Only way to prove me (and you) right or wrong is to set up a parallel universe where bp.tf or other spreadsheets never existed and see what happens when people have to follow their common sense rather than prices set in stone by others.
Arlevate 1 Mar, 2013 @ 8:30am 
Starter is right. I can tell you first hand, the poor get poorer XD
Uranium235 1 Mar, 2013 @ 9:41am 
Originally posted by Nikefier uNo:
Starter is right. I can tell you first hand, the poor get poorer XD
Looks like your bp value[backpack.tf] increased by 160% (to 260%) within 4 month and by 33% in the last 2.3 months (after you got that salvaged crate and started trading here) in terms of $ and by about the same in terms of Metal. Even if you got all the free weapon drops possible by playing as much as possible, that is still an increase of 32% in the last 9 weeks in terms of Metal.
Does not look like you are getting "poorer" to me at all.

Originally posted by norby89:
Don't underestimate the power of a huge flock of people who blindly follow price guides such as backpack.tf as if it was the Holy Bible.
No, you greatly overestimate their influence, especially for high volume items like Keys. Price guides (bptf too) have been around before. Did that lead to a rapid increase in the price?

Again, the Key market is very competitive with high volumes. Basic 101 economics of supply and demand is what sets the price, not any guide by a long shot.

I know that people just don't want to get that into their heads for whatever reason and rather blame sth / so else. That is why I will not argue about this any more.
Last edited by Uranium235; 1 Mar, 2013 @ 9:51am
Vincent Van Goku 1 Mar, 2013 @ 10:47am 
Really, guys, this is what happens when market growth goes unregulated. We're basically too far along for any solution that we can implement that doesn't involve complete market manipulation. You gotta let the bubble pop and hope for a good reset.
Uranium235 1 Mar, 2013 @ 11:19am 
sigh... there is no bubble, no solution needed because there is no problem, get used to it!
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Date Posted: 28 Feb, 2013 @ 7:37pm
Posts: 39