Where is your data.

The attention and focus paid to keys, plus their importance, makes it the most updated item in the game. New suggestions come in almost biweekly. With this item it is inconceivable that there is lag. Along with that the growth in refined volume is a third of the trading price growth of the key. Its not close. Sorry.

I noted already that from the last accepted vote and the most recent suggestion the increased volume of ref in the game would not have kept pace with the increase in price of the key. One would expect the % growth in ref to actually lead, or be greater than, the percent growth in trading key price. If we r at 500,000 keys than that higher than the last time I looked. Please gather DATA.

I use Russian because that is current myth.

After a long discusion about Bills Hats, keys, inflation, devaluation and alian landings, which you can find here.

https://steamhost.cn/steamcommunity_com/groups/tf2outpost/discussions/0/864961721715402543/

I have decided to open this up for some voting and opinions. I have included here the final post I made that included several theories. I hope to get a wide range of opinions and maybe more brainstorming.

BTW, I want to thank Kahgro, samhudson333, norby89 and mostly uranium235 for their participation in that discusion.


1. Russian ref farming idlers coupled with new regular ftp idlers which increased with new tux ftp idlers.

This is a pretty popular explanation and I think most false. In order for idle farming to be the cause, than growth in the volume of ref, week over week, would be expected to lead the growth of the trading price of the key. Instead we have ref growth well behind key price growth (need more data tracked for longer period of time). This may be a factor but by itself, no.

2. Keys are being sold in secondary market for cash which means there are less willing sellers in primary (trading) market even though the total amount of available keys doesn't change. The two demanding forces pull on eachother with trading price effected but not the secondary market price. Multiple reasons possible for that. Net effect is increase in ref price of the key.

This is very plausible and probable also increasingly scary. Let us imagine that we have 100 major holders of keys. 50 of them decide its time to cash out, after 2 years playing/trading in the game they have had enough and its time for a pay day. All the while the other 50 decide to continue trading at this prestigeous level. The most likely buters of alot of keys are the other major key holders. Not exclusively but enough so that most of the keys end up in fewer hands. What has occurred is that there are less competitors in the market for metal and goods. Thats how it starts, not by design tho. Once a few start with higher price than more jump in because there are less holders of keys who sell on open market. The gas station example is relevant here. It is less likely there will be price slashing when there are fewer gas stations in town. They will cooperate in a sense. Then others ask themselves "why would I sell lower" and do the same number just so they don't sell out faster.

This is more likely to occur with few holders of many keys than many holders of some keys, obviously.

What should happen is that the price of keys in the secondary market would rise in response to fewer sellers but there appears to be a large amount of major sellers so as to not cause that.

3. The next theory is one I have proposed for consideration. That is that keys are being hoarded in anticipation of the next crate release. There are alot of interesting unusuals that can show up in the new release. The all class antlers or beufont. The mercs muffler, wonderland wrap, rail spikes, mutton man or what if the teufort kickers become the first shoe unusual. Any of these items would initially be worth massive sums 20 - 50 buds possibly. That "what if" can be a very powerfull thing.



NOW THAT THE TIME IS UPON US WE SHALL SEE WHAT HAPPENS

Lets summerize this for the millions of people following this (cough, lol). Theories about the rise in price of keys (in terms of ref).

1. Russian ref farming idlers coupled with new regular ftp idlers which increased with new tux ftp idlers.

This is a pretty popular explanation and I think most false. In order for idle farming to be the cause, than growth in the volume of ref, week over week, would be expected to lead the growth of the trading price of the key. Instead we have ref growth well behind key price growth (need more data tracked for longer period of time). This may be a factor but by itself, no.

2. Keys are being sold in secondary market for cash which means there are less willing sellers in primary (trading) market even though the total amount of available keys doesn't change. The two demanding forces pull on eachother with trading price effected but not the secondary market price. Multiple reasons possible for that. Net effect is increase in ref price of the key.

This is very plausible and probable also increasingly scary. Let us imagine that we have 100 major holders of keys. 50 of them decide its time to cash out, after 2 years playing/trading in the game they have had enough and its time for a pay day. All the while the other 50 decide to continue trading at this prestigeous level. The most likely buters of alot of keys are the other major key holders. Not exclusively but enough so that most of the keys end up in fewer hands. What has occurred is that there are less competitors in the market for metal and goods. Thats how it starts, not by design tho. Once a few start with higher price than more jump in because there are less holders of keys who sell on open market. The gas station example is relevant here. It is less likely there will be price slashing when there are fewer gas stations in town. They will cooperate in a sense. Then others ask themselves "why would I sell lower" and do the same number just so they don't sell out faster.

This is more likely to occur with few holders of many keys than many holders of some keys, obviously.

What should happen is that the price of keys in the secondary market would rise in response to fewer sellers but there appears to be a large amount of major sellers so as to not cause that.

3. The next theory is one I have proposed for consideration. That is that keys are being hoarded in anticipation of the next crate release. There are alot of interesting unusuals that can show up in the new release. The all class antlers or beufont. The mercs muffler, wonderland wrap, rail spikes, mutton man or what if the teufort kickers become the first shoe unusual. Any of these items would initially be worth massive sums 20 - 50 buds possibly. That "what if" can be a very powerfull thing.


Lastly, two of these possible reason for key trading price rise can still support my assertion that the Bills hat should be revalued.

Originally posted by Uranium235:

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

"edit: an increase / decrease in the absolute - and relative per player - number of ref in existence has only very little to do with Keys rising in Metal since Oct last year, why is that so hard to understand?"

Ummm. The volume of ref in the game is exactly the reason people state for the "devaluation" of ref. There is no other stated reason.

Not by those that actually know what they are talking about.
This has been discussed many many times before. Main reason: Community Market[forums.backpack.tf].

btw, I think i mixed up the "price elasticity" argument

Then the current argument is that ref is competing against money for keys. One in the trading market and the other in secondary market. Correct?

Originally posted by The Once and Future King:

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

ref did not devalue

This is simply not true

I suppose the term is inflation of ref. I hav shown that ref has not lost buying power against many items for which it should if the current thinking is true.

"edit: an increase / decrease in the absolute - and relative per player - number of ref in existence has only very little to do with Keys rising in Metal since Oct last year, why is that so hard to understand?"

Ummm. The volume of ref in the game is exactly the reason people state for the "devaluation" of ref. There is no other stated reason.

"You need to work the other way around and then you will come to the same conclusions as most of us do."

I addressed this. High end traders have a perspective that may have produced an error.

"You make the mistake to cherry pick a few low value (and price) items and draw the conclusion from there to high value items that generally have more price elasticity."

I had to use items gennerally priced in ref, thats why. Im not cherrypicking and can find many if not most vint or gen.