Originally posted by Uranium235:

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

We have reached consensus on the matter (with Uranium235), and that is that the volume increase of refined is not at the core "the event". That the most powerfull influencer in this is secondary market sales of keys. It is the fact that the willing sellers are now divided into two groups thus effecting the supply curve in the trading market. The natural equalibrium is the pricepoint of indifference. The prices of bp.tf were used.

The Community Market is sth. that cannot easily be compared to the in-game trading. It's not only the fact that you can sell and buy keys there that affects metal value (and key price), but the fact that it exists at all.

It's not that people are divided into two groups, but that there are two different market places that compete. Each individual adjusts their supply curve for each market, which have different "currencies" not really exchangeable and with changing cost to transfer, depending on current market conditions (prices of different goods that you are after: keys being one of them).

I believe these statements support the consenses comment I made earlier.

Originally posted by F | CHARLIE:

The next challenge is to police other items who's prices may not adjust fast enough. If we can adopt the principles in this two market problem than sone traders can be reported and banned.

What?

In my opinion, Keys will probably always rise in terms of Metal in the long run because of free drops (/idling). The question is how fast, and have we reached a point where the pace is beginning to slow down again.

Maybe, but it should be at pace that coincides with expected and actual growth in ref

Originally posted by sitebender:

I like the fact that 1 key at $2.50 can buy 3 hats each valued at $5.

Which????

Originally posted by Lost Do I know you?:

Keys are static but nothing else really is. You cant buy a refined from the store for $1. people said this when keys were at 2.33-2.66 ref because then a ref would be $1

Irrational statement about the world revolving around the key.

Originally posted by Lost Do I know you?:

You got that backwards, as the price of a key goes up the value of ref goes down, unless a key is worth less metal or the price of keys goes up (or some weird mix) the value of ref isn't going up because keys can be linked to actual money but ref can't

This makes less sense than I do.

I was elated to see the release of the new crate but after just a few days they are big bust. There is nearly no dammand for the items and it will be unlikely that many will be opened.

A big reason for this is the high cost of opening a crate another is that they didn't introduce any new hats.

If its the case that future summer special crates need their own key than I wonder what the effect will be on the demmand for keys.

The next challenge is to police other items who's prices may not adjust fast enough. If we can adopt the principles in this two market problem than sone traders can be reported and banned.

Originally posted by sitebender:

I still get plenty that sell to me at 4 ref. I've seen more people in trade rooms trying for 4 ref instead of 4.33

Then that is part proof. Some buyers could buy keys in trading market and profit in secondary market until it is too costly then there is indifference.

So for four months people have been profiting from the trading markets failure to recognize this difference. Interestingly, both regular traders and trade suppliers of keys of suffered. They lost oppertunity to profit from there effort in building up so many keys.

Originally posted by norby89:

This just proves you didn't understand absolutely anything from the previous conversations.

(Hi again)

We have reached consensus on the matter (with Uranium235), and that is that the volume increase of refined is not at the core "the event". That the most powerfull influencer in this is secondary market sales of keys. It is the fact that the willing sellers are now divided into two groups thus effecting the supply curve in the trading market. The natural equalibrium is the pricepoint of indifference. The prices of bp.tf were used.

Originally posted by Champelliot:

No price is static. Never has been never will.

Cave Johnson, we're done here.

Cave Johnson????
I never said that it wouldn't fluxuate only that it based on these factors.

The individual currency amounts may change or be different but the relationships stated is what is at the core of "the event".

With x amount of willing sellers of keys having 2 different currencies they can sell their product for, some will choose one and some the other but the long term equilibrium is at a point where there is no measerable diference between the two, given certain volume of sellers.